387
FXUS62 KMLB 280049
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
849 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Current-Rest of Tonight...A rather active pattern this afternoon
brought numerous strong thunderstorms with a few severe warned cells
to east central FL. Driven by multiple boundary and sea breeze
collisions, storm motion was erratic but generally moved from the
west to the east. Highest observed winds were recorded at Cape
Canaveral above 50 mph, with another complex of boundaries colliding
near the site of the KMLB radar this afternoon. This prompted a
brief funnel cloud to develop and unconfirmed tornado (as of 9pm),
with multiple reports of damage shared from nearby neighborhoods in
Melbourne. The collision has continued southward along the
intracoastal waters this evening, arriving to the Treasure Coast
currently. While storms have lost daytime heating, a few still could
be rather strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning, with the
continued potential of a brief spin up as activity moves offshore.
Storms will dissipate by midnight, with quiet conditions forecast
overnight. Lows will fall to the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 803 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A very active afternoon of thunderstorms with activity from MCO east
to the Atlantic producing gusty winds greater than 35 knots at
several terminals over the last several hours. As of 00Z, the
boundary collision resides near KVRB, with iso/sct storms expected
through 02-03Z at the three southern terminals, with brief MVFR
reductions as storm push eastward. Activity will clear near midnight
with variable winds overnight. Another round of afternoon storms
anticipated tomorrow, beginning at northern terminals near 17-18Z,
pushing south along the sea breeze collision through 21-22Z. VFR
outside of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain across the Florida
Straits into tonight. SW flow has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind
the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight, with speeds
generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore
waters and 2-3 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered showers and
lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the
overnight, especially in the offshore waters.

Friday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis begins
to shift back northward, but remains south of the waters on Friday
before moving back northward into the coastal waters this weekend
through early next week. Boating conditions remain favorable as wind
speeds continue around 5-10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon
as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up
to 3 feet offshore at times. Scattered offshore moving storms will
continue to be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  76  92 /  10  60  30  60
MCO  76  93  77  92 /  20  60  20  60
MLB  76  92  77  90 /  50  50  40  50
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  60  50  30  50
LEE  77  93  78  93 /  10  60  20  60
SFB  76  93  77  93 /  10  60  30  60
ORL  77  93  78  92 /  20  60  20  60
FPR  74  93  75  90 /  60  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Schaper