591
FXUS62 KMLB 131709
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
109 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

IMPACTS:
-Heavy showers and storms affecting Treasure Coast early/mid
 afternoon today.

-Sporadic showers and storms around Greater Orlando early this
 evening.

-Potential MVFR CIGs for Space/Treasure Coast terminals tonight.

A band of heavy rain and storms, with reduced visibilities to IFR
or less and wind gusts to 35 KT, will affect FPR/SUA through
13/20Z. After that time, redevelopment of a few storms looks
probable around the Orlando area between 13/22Z and 14/01Z.
Overnight, a lull is expected with lowered CIGs especially MLB
and southward. There is even a 20% chance of brief IFR CIGS, but
confidence too low for TAF at this time. Surface trough overhead
will make prevailing winds difficult through early evening:
becoming NE around 10 KT for DAB with VRB/ESE winds at MCO.
Treasure Coast will remain SW 5-15 KT. METARs are not currently
reporting at DAB/FPR due to an outage.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Broad area of low pressure (Invest 90L) off the northeast FL
coast, will continue to lift northeast, with a weak frontal
boundary remaining nearly stationary near to just north of Lake
and Volusia counties. Morning soundings and GOES-16 TPW imagery
shows plenty of moisture still in place across central Florida
(PW values of 1.9-2.1") across the area. Model guidance even shows
a surge in deeper moisture moving into southern portions of east
central Florida into this afternoon, with PW values increasing up
to 2.3-2.5" across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. This
will continue elevated rain chances across the area today, with
PoPs up to 60-70 percent near to north of Orlando and up to 80-90
percent farther south-southwest. Some showers and storms already
pushing in from the west this morning into areas south of
Melbourne, and an increase in convection is generally expected
through the afternoon, with coverage becoming scattered to
numerous.

Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be one of the main
concerns today, with an persistent or repeated rounds of showers
and storms producing rainfall amounts up to 1-3" and locally
higher amounts of 4 inches or higher. A Marginal to Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall remains in place across east central Florida
today. Additional storm threats will be occasional to frequent
lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 40 to 45 mph.

Satellite imagery shows skies breaking up some, allowing for
partly sunny skies across the north, which should be sufficient
for highs to warm up a little more today in the low 90s and heat
index values climbing to 102-105. Farther south, greater cloud
cover should limit max temps in the mid to upper 80s, but
elevated dewpoints will still make it humid with heat index values
still in the upper 90s to around 100.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 523 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Today-Tonight...Invest 90L just off the east coast of Florida
will continue to move east-northeast today away from the local
area and into the western Atlantic. This will cause the stationary
front across northern Florida to shift southward across north
central Florida today. Winds will generally be S-SW south of the
stationary boundary, and N-NE north of the boundary, with wind
speeds of 10- 15KT, except 15-20 KT in the offshore waters of
Brevard and the Treasure Coast this morning. Small craft should
exercise caution in those waters through the morning. Seas 2-3ft,
building up to 4 feet in the offshore Volusia waters overnight.
Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and scattered
lightning storms will continue today, as deep tropical moisture
remains in place, especially from Cape Canaveral Southward and
generally along the coast.

Friday-Monday...The stationary front will remain in place across
north central Florida through the early part of the weekend before
shifting southward across South Florida into early next week.
Invest 90L is forecast to continue to move northeast off the
eastern US coast. Winds generally will be S-SW on Friday with
speeds 5-10 KT before becoming E-SE on Saturday afternoon. Winds
will become easterly on Sunday as high pressure across the Deep
South builds over the Florida peninsula and will remain into early
next week. Speeds will increase to 10-15 KT on Sunday and
continue through early next week. Seas 2-3ft will increase up to 4
ft in the offshore waters on Monday. Scattered to numerous
showers and scattered lightning storms will continue each day,
especially across the Gulf Stream waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  92 /  40  60  20  40
MCO  75  92  75  91 /  60  60  30  60
MLB  73  89  74  89 /  60  60  40  60
VRB  73  89  72  89 /  60  70  50  70
LEE  76  94  76  95 /  60  60  30  50
SFB  74  92  75  94 /  50  60  30  50
ORL  76  92  75  93 /  50  60  30  60
FPR  72  89  72  89 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil