Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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993 FXUS62 KMLB 171739 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 139 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 124 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Mainly VFR with gusty easterly winds and brief SHRA impacts. Added VCSH to all terminals through 00Z for ISO SHRA that could cause MVFR-IFR VIS impacts too short for TEMPOs (less than 30 minutes). Confidence in onshore moving SHRA after 00Z too low for even VCSH, but can`t rule out a brief overnight impact at the coastal terminals. Winds Erly 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts this afternoon settle to 10-15 kts overnight, then return to 15-20G25-30 kts Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A steady stream of high clouds are being steered southeastward across the peninsula this morning, along with low level cumulus. The 10z XMR sounding indicates a stout dry layer above 700mb, keeping most of the marine shower activity to a minimum. Still, a passing light sprinkle or shower cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast. Temperatures were nudged up a degree or so in most areas for afternoon highs, as were wind speeds, to account for persistent onshore flow. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible at the coast, reaching 20-25 mph elsewhere. A moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches, so always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone. && .MARINE... Issued at 524 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Today-Tonight...Deteriorating sea and boating conditions. Expect breezy onshore flow, with wind speeds generally around 15-20 KT, especially across the offshore Treasure Coast waters. Winds will increase to 15-20 KT across all the waters, except nearshore Volusia, tonight. Small craft should exercise caution in these waters as winds become 15-20 KT. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet, increasing to 5 ft in the Gulf stream waters overnight. Isolated showers through the period, with isolated lightning storms possible this afternoon and evening. Tuesday-Friday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected through late week as a trough approaches the Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. Onshore flow will persist through the period , with winds generally 15-20 KT through Thursday, with winds increasing to 20-25 KT in the offshore waters Wednesday/Thursday. Winds will decrease to around 10 KT by late week. Seas 5-7ft on Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft on Wednesday, and 7-10 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed across the offshore waters starting Tuesday, and expanding to all the waters on Wednesday. Increasing rain and storm chances mid to late week, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will be possible. Rain chances will decrease slightly into late week, with scattered showers and lightning storms remaining possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 87 76 87 / 20 30 20 50 MCO 74 88 75 88 / 10 30 20 40 MLB 77 87 77 87 / 10 50 40 50 VRB 76 87 76 87 / 10 50 40 50 LEE 75 90 76 91 / 10 20 10 30 SFB 74 89 75 89 / 10 30 20 40 ORL 75 89 76 89 / 10 30 20 40 FPR 75 87 76 87 / 10 50 50 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Haley