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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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560 FXUS62 KMLB 161404 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1004 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Temperatures are steadily warming into the 80s this morning, on the way to highs in the upper 80s (coast) to low/mid 90s (inland). A low to mid level cloud deck from Lake Okeechobee to coastal Stuart County has produced light radar returns over the last hour, warranting a 15-20 PoP across those far southern locations through late morning. Depending on how long clouds last down south, temperatures could stay a degree or so cooler than expected. Otherwise, an inland-moving sea breeze this afternoon will prompt isolated showers and a storm or two to form, mainly from the Orlando metro area westward. Rain and lightning chances remain low but non-zero, with the highest chance (30-40 PoP) situated from Leesburg to the Kissimmee River and Lake Okeechobee. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will become east-northeast this morning and increase to 5-10 KT. Due to deep easterly flow and drier air filtering in, SHRA/TSRA looks to favor west Florida. Thus, have maintained VCSH for interior sites starting at 20Z for any westward moving convection that forms along the sea breeze. Greatest potential for any SHRA/VCTS will be across the western interior. Have not included any TEMPOs as timing and coverage remain uncertain. Northeast winds will become light after sun down before increasing to 10-13KT by early Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Today-Tonight...The weak pressure gradient continues across the local waters early this morning with L/V winds under 10 kts. However, an NE/ENE flow will develop with speeds increasing to 8-13 kts by afternoon. ERLY winds will increase tonight to 12-17 kts areawide as the pgrad begins to tighten. Seas 2-3 ft, but begin to build later tonight up to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream. Mon-Thu...The pgrad continues to tighten this week as onshore winds winds increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu with the approach of low pressure over the western Atlc, which does have some potential to develop by around mid-week as it ventures quickly toward the FL peninsula. Seas build 4-5 ft on Mon and up to 6 ft offshore Mon night, 5-6 ft areawide on Tue and up to 7 ft offshore Tue night. Seas forecast 6-8 ft Wed and perhaps up to 12 ft well offshore Wed overnight. Max seas could approach 14 ft offshore by early Thu. At the very least Cautionary Statements next week will turn into Small Craft Advisories, and perhaps some "tropical" wording mixed in by around mid-week should the aforementioned low develop. Shower and isolated lightning storm chances will go up by mid-week across the local waters as moisture values increase. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 77 88 76 / 10 20 30 20 MCO 91 75 88 75 / 30 10 30 20 MLB 88 77 88 77 / 20 20 30 30 VRB 89 76 88 76 / 20 20 30 30 LEE 92 76 91 75 / 30 10 30 10 SFB 91 75 89 75 / 20 10 30 20 ORL 91 76 89 75 / 20 10 30 20 FPR 88 76 87 76 / 20 20 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Watson