739
FXUS62 KMLB 201433
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1033 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A few showers over the offshore Atlantic waters this morning,
otherwise, mostly quiet across east central Florida. Patchy fog
earlier this morning has since dissipated with the daytime
heating. Expect fairly similar conditions today as yesterday, as
a weak trough extends down across the US east coast, including the
Florida peninsula. Light northeast winds this morning will become
east- northeast by this afternoon and increase to 5-10 mph with a
few gusts to around 20 mph possible. The 10Z XMR sounding shows a
PW value around 1.5", with drier air in the mid and upper levels.
The GOES derived PW is in good agreement, with PW values of
1.4-1.5" across east central Florida. This will support isolated
to scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon. The
greatest moisture will focus from Orlando/Cape Canaveral
southward, with 20-30 percent chance of showers/storms near I-4
and the Space Coast and 40-50 percent chances for the Treasure
Coast. Main storm threats today will be occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-45 mph, and brief torrential
rain which could cause minor flooding. Afternoon highs will be in
the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

Tonight, mostly dry conditions are expected with a few showers
possibly skirting the coast in the NE flow. Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 70s. Forecast remains on track with no major
changes.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Patchy fog this morning affecting LEE and OBE. Expect reductions
to clear through around 13Z. Then, VFR conditions prevailing.
Scattered showers and storms this afternoon, mainly along and
inland from the Treasure Coast. VCSH developing around 20Z from
MCO southward, with VCTS possible at FPR and SUA. Convection will
move inland through the afternoon, clearing around sunset. Then,
models suggest showers along the coast overnight (after around
5Z), pushing onshore due to NNE/NE flow. Winds around 10kts or
less through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Boating conditions slowly become poorer over the next few days as
onshore winds increase. As high pressure settles into the
Appalachians, northeast winds freshen to 8-13 KT today through the
weekend. There is a low to medium chance for showers and a few
storms, though offshore-moving storms look less likely. By early
next week, winds turn more easterly at 10-15 KT. Seas 2-4 FT through
Saturday before building to 3-5 FT Sunday-Tuesday, largely driven by
a northeast swell at 9-11 sec.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  74  87  75 /  20  20  40  20
MCO  90  74  90  73 /  30  10  40   0
MLB  88  75  88  76 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  88  73  89  74 /  40  20  40  20
LEE  90  73  90  73 /  20   0  30   0
SFB  89  73  88  73 /  30  10  40  10
ORL  90  74  90  75 /  30  10  40   0
FPR  88  73  88  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy