056
FXUS62 KMLB 261441
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1041 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A few showers are ongoing across the Atlantic waters this morning,
mainly south of Cape Canaveral, as well as across the west coast
of Florida. Surface observations and satellite imagery show some
low and high level clouds streaming across the Florida peninsula.
The ridge axis is just to the south, across the Florida Straits,
resulting in W/SW flow across the local area today. The east coast
sea breeze is forecast to form once again today and move inland.
The sea breeze/outflow collision is forecast to be around the I-95
corridor, where the highest rain and storm chances (PoPs 60
percent) occur. Shower and storm activity is then expected to push
the activity back towards the coast through late afternoon and
into the evening. Some of the CAMs indicate redevelopment west of
I-95 will be possible late this afternoon as new outflow
boundaries interact with the lagging west coast sea breeze. Much
like the last few days, the main storm hazards today will be
occasional to frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds
up to 35 mph. Temperatures will be hot and muggy today with a
Moderate to Major Heat Risk continuing today. Afternoon highs in
the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102-106
degrees. Forecast remains on track with only minor updates to the
rain and storm chances through tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions expected to continue through this morning, with
scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms developing
into the afternoon, producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions. Greatest
coverage of this activity will be with boundary collisions that
are favored toward to just west of the I-95 corridor around mid to
late afternoon. Storms will move slowly eastward toward the coast
and offshore through sunset, with some isolated to scattered
convection potentially lingering across east central FL into the
evening.

Have kept VCTS at most sites from 18Z-00Z (17-23Z at KLEE), with
VCSH lingering through 03Z. HRRR guidance has been trending lower
in storm coverage for this afternoon, but have went ahead and
added tempo groups from 20-23Z for coastal sites that have a
better chance for storms this afternoon. Light W/NW winds 5-7
knots will become E/SE around 8-10 knots along the coast from
around 18Z onward as east coast sea breeze forms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Today-Sunday...Seas around 2 ft gradually increase to 3 ft across
the offshore waters Thursday and Friday as an onshore swell
increases. Light offshore winds become onshore Saturday before
developing a broad southerly component on Sunday. Winds back with
the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. A
summertime pattern continues with high coverage of showers and
storms forecast across the local waters (50-70%) each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  94  76 /  60  40  60  20
MCO  93  76  92  77 /  60  50  60  10
MLB  91  76  93  76 /  60  40  60  20
VRB  91  74  93  74 /  60  30  60  10
LEE  94  76  93  77 /  50  20  60  10
SFB  94  76  93  77 /  60  40  60  10
ORL  94  77  93  77 /  60  50  60  10
FPR  91  74  93  74 /  60  30  60  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Weitlich