Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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181 FXUS62 KMLB 241823 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 223 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 TAFs begin with VCTS/TEMPO TSRA (18Z-01Z) and MVFR CIGs in storms. Afternoon/evening scat`d storms are forecast as the ECSB moves inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze/outflow boundaries. Shower/storm chances diminish after sunset and end by midnight. E/SE winds at 5-10kts veer S/SW overnight and then back onshore into the afternoon Tuesday at 5-10kts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Isolated showers ongoing across the Atlantic this morning, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. Satellite and surface observations shows some low and high level clouds streaming across the local area currently. GOES-16 PWAT imagery shows deeper moisture remaining in place with PWAT values between 1.8-2.0". Convection today will be dominantly driven by diurnal heating and sea breeze and boundary interactions. Higher coverage of precip once again today, with highest PoP ~60 percent, mainly across the western interior. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland this afternoon, with the collision expected to occur across the western central peninsula by late afternoon into the early evening. Main storm threats will be locally heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds up to 35 mph. Slow moving to stationary storms will be capable of a quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute time frame. Locally higher amounts could cause ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of urban and low lying areas. Convection should dissipate or move out of the local area before midnight, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms remaining possible over the Atlantic waters through the overnight. Hot and muggy today, with afternoon highs in the low 90s, except mid 90s possible across the north where less cloud cover is expected. Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to rain and lightning chances this afternoon and overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 426 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Today-Friday...A surface ridge axis across the western Atlantic is nudged eastward on Tuesday. In response, southerly flow develops an offshore southwest to west component into mid week. Seas of 2-3 ft today subside becoming dominantly 2 ft by Tuesday. Occasional seas to 3 ft well offshore. Deep moisture will continue to promote high coverage of showers and lightning storms across the local waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 93 75 92 / 20 60 30 70 MCO 77 93 76 92 / 40 70 30 70 MLB 76 91 75 91 / 20 70 30 70 VRB 74 91 75 91 / 20 70 30 70 LEE 77 95 77 93 / 60 70 30 70 SFB 77 94 75 93 / 30 70 30 70 ORL 77 94 77 92 / 40 70 30 70 FPR 74 90 75 91 / 20 70 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Watson AVIATION...Fehling