Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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237 FXUS62 KMLB 240827 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 427 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 426 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Today...Not much has changed over the last 24 hours, and a similar forecast is on tap today. Early morning GOES-16 PWAT imagery shows deep moisture remaining in place with PWATs between 1.9-2.1". High coverage of showers an lightning storms remain in the forecast today (~60%), with convection dominantly driven by diurnal heating and mesoscale boundaries. Light southerly flow prevails for one more day, allowing for the development of both the east and west coast sea breezes. Each sea breeze will gradually move inland through late morning into the afternoon, and a collision is expected across the central peninsula by late afternoon into the early evening. Limited steering flow continues a heavy rainfall threat today. As observed yesterday, slow moving to stationary storms will be capable of a quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute time frame. Locally higher amounts could cause ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of urban and low lying areas. Frequent lightning strikes and localized gusty winds also remain in play today. High temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s across much of east central Florida. A few areas across the north could sneak into the mid 90s where less cloud cover is forecast before afternoon showers and storms develop. Muggy conditions will contribute to peak heat index values up to 105 degrees. Tuesday...Low pressure moves off the northeast U.S. coast, dragging a surface boundary across the southeast and off the Atlantic seaboard. Surface high pressure offshore gets nudged westward. Locally, west to southwest flow develops on the northwest side of the ridge axis. Moisture becomes reinforced with modeled PWATs between 2-2.2". Offshore steering flow remains light, still allowing for the development of the east coast sea breeze. A sea breeze collision is forecast to occur slightly more eastward compared to the prior days. Once again, high coverage of afternoon showers and lightning storms is anticipated (70%) producing heavy downpours, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and localized gusty winds. Humid conditions persist with afternoon temperatures in the low 90s. Peak heat index values are forecast up to 106 degrees. Wednesday-Sunday...Another moisture boundary is forecast to sink across the southeast U.S. Thursday into Friday. However, its local influence may become limited as waves of drier air move eastward from the Gulf. An ECMWF solution attempts to hold onto higher moisture values with modeled PWATs between 1.9-2.1" into the weekend. The GFS indicates a larger influence from the drier airmass with PWATs ranging 1.5-1.7" across the peninsula Friday afternoon. Regardless, a typical summer time pattern is expected to prevail supporting scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms into the weekend (60-70%). Southwest to west flow remains in place through late week. A more dominant west coast sea breeze will promote a sea breeze collision across the central or eastern side of the peninsula through late week before winds shift south to southeast into Saturday. Weak, unidirectional wind profiles and poor mid level lapse rates should aid in limiting overall storm intensity each afternoon. Primary storm hazards include localized heavy rainfall, lightning strikes, and gusty winds. The high temperature forecast remains steady in the low 90s through the end of the week. Peak heat index values are generally expected between 102-106 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 426 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Today-Friday...A surface ridge axis across the western Atlantic is nudged eastward on Tuesday. In response, southerly flow develops an offshore southwest to west component into mid week. Seas of 2-3 ft today subside becoming dominantly 2 ft by Tuesday. Occasional seas to 3 ft well offshore. Deep moisture will continue to promote high coverage of showers and lightning storms across the local waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Atlc ridge axis has slipped a little further south, located near Lake Okeechobee, resulting in a light S to SW wind flow through 14Z-15Z around 5 knots with mainly VFR conds. A wind shift out of the SE will occur at coastal terminals btwn 16Z-18Z around 10 knots. The sea breeze should spark isold to sct SHRA/TSRA just inland from the coast so have maintained VC term for coastal terminals aft 15Z. Confidence and coverage not high enough to warrant TEMPO there. Expect an increase in storm coverage over the north interior aft 19Z assocd with boundary collisions so have added a TEMPO for MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in TSRA at MCO/SFB/LEE. Chose a 3-hr window for each but confidence is low on the exact timing. Adjustments may be needed in later TAF packages. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 76 93 75 / 50 40 70 40 MCO 93 77 93 76 / 60 60 70 40 MLB 90 76 90 74 / 60 30 70 50 VRB 89 74 90 75 / 60 30 70 30 LEE 93 77 93 77 / 60 60 70 40 SFB 94 77 93 76 / 60 60 70 40 ORL 94 77 93 77 / 60 60 70 40 FPR 89 74 90 74 / 60 40 70 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Kelly