209
FXUS62 KMLB 300549
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
149 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A very moist airmass remains in place, with BKN/OVC mid level
cloud deck around 12-15kft persisting across the area. Can`t rule
out a few showers/isolated storms near the Treasure Coast
terminals of KVRB-KSUA through early this morning. Otherwise,
rain chances will ramp up into the late morning and afternoon as
east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms will be able to develop across the
area this afternoon, but steering flow looks to focus this
activity across the interior, west of I-95. Have therefore limited
any tempo groups for TSRA over the inland TAF sites from around
19-22Z for now. However, have kept VCTS mention at the coast for
convection initially developing along the sea breeze.

Showers and storms will diminish into the evening hours, with some
drier air then moving into the area overnight. Winds will be light
and variable through early morning, with winds picking up slightly
out of the NE by late morning and then out of the E/SE through the
afternoon around 7-10 mph as sea breeze moves inland.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Current KMLB radar imagery shows most of east central dry with
isolated showers over the southwestern interior, as well as the
local Atlantic waters. Current temperatures are in the mid 70s to
low 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Mostly dry
conditions are expected to continue into the overnight hours,
however guidance indicates that a convergent line will develop
over the local Atlantic overnight with isolated to scattered
showers and lightning storms. Isolated showers (~20-30%) and
lightning storms (20%) remain in the forecast overnight into
early Sunday morning along the coast south of Port Canaveral with
a slight onshore northeasterly steering flow component along the
coast. Otherwise, dry conditions with decreasing cloud cover and
low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain across the area
maintaining favorable boating conditions. Light and variable
winds expected again into Sunday morning, but flow will develop a
more southerly component next week. Winds will become onshore
each afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, with speeds around
10 knots each afternoon. Seas around 2 feet Sun-Mon will increase
up to 3 feet offshore by mid week. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will continue to be possible over the coastal waters
through the period. A higher coverage of showers and storms are
possible Sunday morning esp south of Sebastian Inlet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  92  77 /  50  30  50  20
MCO  91  74  93  76 /  70  40  60  20
MLB  89  75  91  77 /  40  20  50  20
VRB  89  74  91  76 /  50  20  50  20
LEE  92  76  93  77 /  80  50  60  30
SFB  92  75  93  77 /  60  30  60  20
ORL  92  76  93  77 /  70  40  60  20
FPR  89  74  91  76 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich