Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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814 FXUS62 KMLB 200235 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1035 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 An earlier start to diurnal convection today over land has led to an earlier end. However, there are a few convergent cloud lines seen on KMLB radar offshore Brevard and the Treasure coast as well which should become more active with convection overnight. Most of this convection should stay over the Atlc but will keep a small PoP along the coast from the Cape southward into early overnight. Light and variable winds will become light N/NW toward morning with min temps in the low to mid 70s. Skies will become mostly clear and there is a small chance for patchy fog in normally fog prone areas, including where heavy rains fell today (St Lucie county) and across north Lake/NW Volusia counties. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 820 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conds forecast to prevail for most of the TAF period. Outflow boundary will push westward into Lake county and may spark addl SHRA, possibly a TSRA through 03Z. Have removed all TEMPO groups and kept VCSH at LEE/MCO/ISM/MLB for brief shower impacts. There is some signal for patchy fog/stratus late tonight at LEE but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. Light and variable winds tonight will become NE-E up to 10 knots on Fri. Have inserted VCTS for VRB-SUA Fri aftn for sea breeze convection with decreasing coverage to the north. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Now-Tonight...Seas will continue to fall into tonight, around 2-4 ft, as onshore flow becomes light and variable through daybreak Friday. Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue to push over the waters through the evening and may last through the early overnight period. Locally higher wind gusts and seas are possible as a result of this activity. Friday-Monday...Generally favorable conditions are forecast through the weekend with poor boating conditions potentially returning by Sunday or early next week. Persistent northeasterly winds will increase each day with the highest gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon and evening hours. Seas 2-3 ft thru Saturday, increasing to 3-5 ft Sunday-Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 88 74 88 / 10 20 10 30 MCO 74 90 74 90 / 30 20 0 30 MLB 74 88 74 88 / 30 30 10 20 VRB 73 89 74 89 / 30 40 10 20 LEE 74 90 73 90 / 20 20 0 20 SFB 73 89 73 89 / 20 20 0 30 ORL 74 90 74 90 / 30 20 0 30 FPR 72 88 73 89 / 30 40 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Kelly