117
FXUS62 KMLB 131137
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
737 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 737 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

ISOLD light shower activity across ECFL early this morning. Some
heavier convection SW of KTBW and will see if any can hold
together as it ventures eastward. Main issue early on will be the
MVFR CIGs/ISOLD IFR. Expect a gradual lifting of MVFR CIGs in
favor of VFR from mid-morning onward. Periods of convection
expected thru the day with locally heavy rainfall, lightning
strikes and gusty winds in a few heavier storms. Will monitor
TEMPO groups and AMEND as necessary as ample tropical moisture
exists across the area.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 523 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are forecast to continue
  across Florida over the next few days as Invest 90L moves east-
  northeast off the southeastern US.
- Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with locally higher
  amounts up to 4 inches possible today.

Today-Tonight... Invest 90L is forecast to continue to slowly move
east-northeast into the western Atlantic today. At the same time, a
stationary boundary across northern Florida will sag southward
across central Florida keeping the deep tropical moisture in place
across much of the peninsula and allowing for continued high rain
chances. Forecast PW values range from 1.8" across the north and
2.4" across the south, which will support scattered to numerous
showers and isolated to scattered lightning storms to once again be
possible through this evening. Rain chances will increase into this
afternoon, with rain chances starting off across the south in the
morning and spreading northward across the entire area into the
afternoon and evening. Highest rain chances remain 80-90 percent
areawide today.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary hazard today, with
locally heavy to excessive rainfall being possible. Stronger showers
and storms will be capable of delivering a quick 1-2" of rainfall in
an hour, leading to rainfall amounts of 1-3" today, with locally
higher amounts up to 4" possible. The Weather Prediction Center
(WPC) has maintained a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
for east central Florida for today. Other storm threats include
occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and gusty winds.
Temperatures today are forecast to be seasonable with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s.

Friday-Saturday...Models remain in fairly good agreement for late
week and into early weekend. Invest 90L is forecast to continue
to move farther away from east central Florida as it moves
northeast off the eastern US coast through the period. Locally,
deep tropical moisture will remain in place as a stationary front
lingers across north central Florida, allowing for high rain
chances to continue. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to
scattered lightning storms are expected each day. Highest rain
chances (PoP 70-90 percent area wide) will be on Friday afternoon,
with rain chances slightly decreasing on Saturday as the ECM and
GFS models begin to diverge from each other once again. Rain
chances on Saturday will range from 40 percent across the far
north to 80 percent across the south into the afternoon and
evening.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" are generally forecast through
Sunday morning. However, locally heavy to excessive rainfall will
continue to be possible, with WPC having east central Florida
outlooked in a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on
Friday, and at least a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across
portions of the ECFL on Saturday. Other storm hazards besides heavy
rainfall will be occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and
gusty winds. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to
low 90s each day.

Sunday-Wednesday...Upper level high pressure across the Deep
South will build over the Florida peninsula as it shifts north and
eastward across the eastern CONUS through mid-week. This will
cause the stationary front across central Florida to move
southward across South Florida, with the higher moisture shifting
south and east. Forecast PW values will range from 1.3-1.7" on
Sunday, and 1.5-2.0" through mid-week. Models continue to be in
disagreement through early week, with the ECM showing higher rain
chances than the GFS through at least Monday, with the models
coming back into better agreement Tuesday and Wednesday.
Regardless, ample moisture will be present in the onshore flow to
have scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms each
afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonable through the period,
with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 523 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Today-Tonight...Invest 90L just off the east coast of Florida
will continue to move east-northeast today away from the local
area and into the western Atlantic. This will cause the stationary
front across northern Florida to shift southward across north
central Florida today. Winds will generally be S-SW south of the
stationary boundary, and N-NE north of the boundary, with wind
speeds of 10- 15KT, except 15-20 KT in the offshore waters of
Brevard and the Treasure Coast this morning. Small craft should
exercise caution in those waters through the morning. Seas 2-3ft,
building up to 4 feet in the offshore Volusia waters overnight.
Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and scattered
lightning storms will continue today, as deep tropical moisture
remains in place, especially from Cape Canaveral Southward and
generally along the coast.

Friday-Monday...The stationary front will remain in place across
north central Florida through the early part of the weekend before
shifting southward across South Florida into early next week.
Invest 90L is forecast to continue to move northeast off the
eastern US coast. Winds generally will be S-SW on Friday with
speeds 5-10 KT before becoming E-SE on Saturday afternoon. Winds
will become easterly on Sunday as high pressure across the Deep
South builds over the Florida peninsula and will remain into early
next week. Speeds will increase to 10-15 KT on Sunday and
continue through early next week. Seas 2-3ft will increase up to 4
ft in the offshore waters on Monday. Scattered to numerous
showers and scattered lightning storms will continue each day,
especially across the Gulf Stream waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  73  90  73 /  80  50  80  20
MCO  90  74  89  75 /  90  50  80  30
MLB  90  73  89  74 /  80  50  90  40
VRB  90  72  89  72 /  90  60  90  50
LEE  92  75  93  76 /  80  60  80  20
SFB  91  74  92  74 /  80  50  80  30
ORL  91  75  91  75 /  90  50  80  30
FPR  89  71  88  72 /  90  60  90  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Sedlock