Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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150 FXUS64 KMOB 201309 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 746 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 746 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light north to northwest winds (5 to 10 kt) today, perhaps southerly near the coast late this afternoon. Winds mainly light and variable tonight. DS/12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 509 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 An upper trof along the East Coast early today moves slowly off into the western Atlantic through Saturday, while upper level ridging builds into the forecast area from the west. A weak sea breeze circulation develops near the coast this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon, but a deep, dry north to northeasterly flow prevails over the forecast area and deep layer moisture will be too limited to consider PoPs, so have continued with a dry forecast through Saturday. Afternoon temps heated up a little above what was forecast for yesterday, and with upper level riding and associated subsidence building into the region over the next several days we expect more of the same. As a result, we went a couple of degrees above NBM max temps for today, and expect most locations to warm into the lower 90s with a few mid 90s possible over some interior locations. With the dry air aloft, we mixed dewpoints down a little lower than expected yesterday as well, and we expect a similar scenario again today (with dewpoints likely falling into the mid and upper 60s for most locations today except for along immediate coast where min dewpoints should be in the lower 70s). We are expecting the same trend and same numbers for high temps and min dewpoints again on Saturday. For tonight, we expect low temperatures to range from the mid 60s well inland to the low to mid 70s near the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected today through Saturday. DS/12 SHORT and LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 509 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Dry and warm conditions continue through Monday as an upper-level ridge slowly pushes eastward across the local region and an expansive surface high pressure remains over the Appalachians. Subsidence from the deep-layer ridging in place, along with lower moisture values (PWAT values around 1.2 to 1.5 inches) should keep rain out of the forecast through, at least, Monday. Highs will generally range from the upper 80s along the coast to the low 90s inland. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. By midweek, troughing should begin to dig into the central US and move into the Great Lakes region. At the same time, a low pressure system will attempt to form over the northwest Caribbean/southern Gulf in association with a developing Central American Gyre (CAG). There still remains a lot of questions with regards to the overall upper-level pattern by this time. Some model runs suggest that the trough will be strong enough to break down the ridge and shunt it eastward into the western Atlantic, whereas other runs keep the ridge in place longer. Some runs also suggest a cutoff low breaking away from the main trough over the central US, whereas others do not. More questions arise when looking at the potential system developing to our south: Will a low pressure area be able to consolidate from the large-scale CAG, or will it remain a broad, sprawled-out area of disturbed weather? If a low is able to pinch off from the CAG, where exactly does it form? And lastly, what will be it`s trajectory? Will the ridge linger over our area long enough to push it west, will it feel the pull of the cutoff upper low to its northwest (if one does develop), or will the main trough be strong enough to pull this area northeast? Unfortunately, at this time, we do not know the answers to these questions. With the pattern being so complex and fickle, run-to- run and model-vs-model variability remains very high this far out. We will continue to monitor trends closely and will provide updates to the forecast once answers become more clear. We strongly urge residents and visitors across the entire Gulf Coast to continue to monitor the forecast over the coming days. /96 MARINE... Issued at 509 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A light, mostly offshore flow is expected into the early part of the weekend, with a more east to southeasterly flow expected to develop late in the weekend and continue into the early part of next week. Little change in seas is expected through the weekend and into the early part of next week. No expected hazards to small craft through the weekend and into the early part of next week, but winds and seas will likely be increasing by midweek and especially into late week, possibly posing a hazard to small craft as low pressure (possibly tropical in nature) develops over the Gulf. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 70 93 71 91 71 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 92 73 88 73 90 73 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 91 74 89 75 88 75 88 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 93 67 93 68 93 69 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 92 67 93 69 93 69 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 92 67 91 69 93 70 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 93 67 92 68 93 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob