660
FXUS64 KMOB 161004
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
503 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

An unsettled pattern will continue through early this week. Current
water vapor imagery reveals two mid to upper lows across the region
this morning with the first low (remnants of Francine) lingering
along the eastern Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi and a second
low (Potential Tropical Cyclone 8) positioned near the Carolina
Coast. This places the area within a westerly to northwesterly flow
aloft. As we go throughout the day, the upper low over the Carolinas
will continue moving northwestward and eventually become phased with
the low over the Mississippi Valley. Down in the lower levels, a
frontal low pressure is currently positioned over coastal
Mississippi with an associated surface boundary extending eastward
across coastal Alabama and into the nearshore Gulf waters. Showers
and a few thunderstorms have already started to develop across
portions of southwest Alabama and along the coast this morning.
Coverage is expected to increase in these areas and especially along
the coast through the morning as a the upper low over northern
Mississippi sinks southeastward and interacts with the stalled
surface boundary. Additional scattered to numerous showers and
storms are expected across the area this afternoon and into the
evening hours. The main concern with this activity today will be
heavy rainfall and instances of localized flooding especially in
areas where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Radar trends
are already indicating some training cells near the coast where a
Flash Flood Warning is currently in effect for southern portions of
Santa Rosa County. This activity is producing efficient rain rates
in a short amount of time and we could see additional flooding
concerns as we go throughout the day. WPC has outlooked most of the
area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today. Showers and
thunderstorms will gradually diminish through the evening and
overnight hours tonight, although there could be a few lingering
cells focused near the coast.

Rain chances will remain elevated on Tuesday with the base of the
upper trough extending down into the local area and the surface
boundary lingering near or along the coast. PWATs of 1.7-1.9 inches
will be in place across the area Tuesday morning. This moisture
combined with this boundary will aid in the development of scattered
showers and storms through the day. The highest coverage of showers
and storms looks to be focused along the coast and closer to the
boundary. Slightly drier air may attempt to work its way into far
interior portions of southwest and south central Alabama by Tuesday
afternoon and this could help to limit rain chances in these areas.

High temperatures this afternoon will be slightly below normal with
values reaching into the lower to middle 80s. Overnight lows tonight
fall into the middle 60s inland to lower 70s along the coast. Highs
on Tuesday rise into the lower and middle 80s again. A low risk of
rip currents continues through Tuesday. /14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

An upper level low associated with the current potential tropical
cyclone approaching the Carolinas will continue to pivot over the
Appalachians Tuesday night/Wednesday morning before being picked
up and absorbed into a larger scale trough over the eastern U.S.
on Wednesday. This upper level trough will remain in place over
the eastern U.S. through the latter part of the week. Upper level
ridging will meanwhile continue to build from the Plains to the
Mississippi Valley region mid to late week. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday,
especially near the coast along the persistent boundary. A much
drier northwesterly to northerly flow aloft returns between the
trough to our east and ridging to our west late Wednesday night
through Saturday. We expect dry weather conditions to prevail
during this time frame. Another upper level low may pinch over the
Eastern Seaboard late this week and translate into the
southeastern U.S. by the latter part of the weekend. There
currently does not appear to be a lot of moisture available on the
western side of this system Sunday, but perhaps just enough to
support a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over
southern portions of our forecast area by Sunday afternoon. Highs
will mostly range in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees each day, with
lows mainly in the 60s over interior areas and lower 70s along the
immediate coast and beaches. /21

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Main impacts will primarily be for the first half of the week
with scattered to numerous thunderstorms, bringing brief strong
wind gusts and locally higher seas. Aside from storms, winds
expected to be 10 knots or less and seas a foot or less. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  70  85  69  87  69  90  68 /  60  40  50  10  20   0  10   0
Pensacola   82  72  84  72  86  72  89  71 /  80  40  50  10  20   0  10   0
Destin      83  73  84  73  86  73  89  72 /  60  40  40  20  20   0  10   0
Evergreen   83  66  86  67  89  65  90  64 /  70  30  30  10  20   0  10   0
Waynesboro  82  66  85  66  88  65  88  64 /  70  30  30   0  20   0   0   0
Camden      81  65  85  65  86  64  87  63 /  60  20  20   0  20   0   0   0
Crestview   82  67  86  67  88  67  90  65 /  70  40  50  10  30   0  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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