618
FXUS64 KMOB 181248
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
747 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period, but very
isolated MVFR to brief IFR in isolated showers or storms this
afternoon (which will primarily be over the coastal counties of AL
and NWFL). Winds remain light and variable through the period.
DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

An upper low centered near the Carolinas early this morning
gradually broadens and evolves into an upper trof over the eastern
states through Thursday. A weak frontal boundary meanders near the
AL and NWFL coastal counties through Thursday as well, being just
offshore at times. There are a few isolated showers over the marine
area early this morning, but even with the surface boundary in place
and some low level moisture remaining, water vapor imagery and model
data indicates that progressively drier deep layer air is filtering
into the region early this morning, and will become even more
entrenched over the area through Thursday. As a result, PoPs will be
very low today, generally no more than about 20 percent (and mainly
for the coastal counties). Generally dry conditions will then
prevail tonight and Thursday. High temperatures for both today and
Thursday are expected to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s across
the region, with lows tonight ranging from the mid to upper 60s over
inland areas to the upper 60s and lower 70s closer to the coast.
Locations along the beaches and immediate coast possibly remaining
in the middle 70s. DS/12

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper level ridging over the South Central US will gradually
slide east through the period which will result a rather benign
pattern through early next week. In the lower levels, a surface
high pressure will linger over the portions of Southeast with a
light northeasterly to easterly flow prevailing through the
weekend. Deep layer moisture will be paltry during this time with
PWATs about 1.5 inches or less. This drier air along with the lack
of forcing will result in warm and dry conditions through early
next week. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and
lower 90s through the weekend with upper 80s expected by early
next week. Overnight lows range from the lower to middle 60s well
inland with lower 70s at the beaches. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Light, mainly west to northwest winds expected today through
Thursday night, then a more east to southeasterly flow is expected
by Friday and into the weekend. Little change in seas through the
weekend. No significant hazards to small craft are expected
through the weekend, but winds and seas will likely be increasing
next week, possibly posing a hazard to small craft by mid week.
DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  70  90  67  91  69  90  69 /  20   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   87  73  89  72  90  73  88  73 /  20   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      86  74  89  73  89  74  89  73 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   91  66  91  66  92  65  92  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  89  65  89  64  90  64  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      88  65  88  65  90  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   89  68  92  68  91  67  90  66 /  20   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob