Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
525 FXUS64 KMOB 171751 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday morning. We do expect scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA to develop primarily across southeast MS, southwest AL, and into portions of the western FL panhandle through the afternoon hours. We kept VCTS mentioned in the KMOB/KBFM/KPNS/KJKA TAF this afternoon and will monitor radar trends for potential amendments. Localized MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions and wind gusts in excess of 30 kt will be possible near the stronger storms. Convection should gradually decrease in coverage early this evening (after 00Z) although isolated SHRA/TSRA may linger into the evening hours. /21 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The Gulf is ready for business as deep southeasterly flow continues to pump rich Gulf moisture northward. A series of inverted troughs will work their way around the northern periphery of a larger gyre centered over central America. This semi- persistent feature is know as the Central American Gyre and typically set up around this time of year and can be the spawning grounds for some early season tropical mischief. Spoiler alert, the NHC has highlighted this area for potential for tropical development over the next 5 days. The good news is for our area that even if we do get our first system of the year, it would likely move into Mexico or extreme southeast Texas. The bad news is that we will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that will setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our east. In this channel of moisture, PWATS will range from 2 inches to as high as 2.5 inches or more. With this sort of moisture and pattern in place, its almost always a good bet on a rather soggy week. The next wave of precip will enter the area bringing widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by midmorning into the early afternoon today. The best chance for rain will continue to be across southeastern Mississippi into coastal southwestern Alabama where better low level convergence will be present. The biggest issue will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall given the rather deep tropical moisture. Storms will be highly efficient in producing heavy rainfall; however, nebulous forcing, dry antecedent conditions and no true low level focus for storms will likely keep any flooding localized at least for now. While some localized flooding cannot be ruled out, it will likely be confined to poor drainage areas and urban zones. Tuesday will bring yet another round of rain and storms; however, rain will likely be more confined to the coast as the upper ridge is able to build in some over our interior areas. This will also be in response to whatever developing system near Texas does as it draws moisture further west out of our area. Expect some rain chances especially along and south of I-10 during the day on Tuesday but most of the area will remain dry. This is only temporarily as there will be plenty of opportunities for more rain in the coming week. Along with the increased rain chances, waves will be on the general increase leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents beginning today and eventually large breaking waves at the beaches leading to a high surf advisory. BB/03 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob