797
AWUS01 KWNH 170710
FFGMPD
MIZ000-171300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0451
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Areas affected...southern portions of Lower Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170708Z - 171300Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding from training and 2-4 inch
rainfall totals will be possible across southern portions of Lower
Michigan through 13Z.

Discussion...A long-lived MCV was noted to be tracking east across
southern portions of Lower Michigan at 0635Z. The MCV was centered
about 30 miles WSW of Lansing, although an additional circulation
was noted ~30 miles ESE of Lansing via KDTX radar imagery. SPC
mesoanalysis data showed that an area of ~500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE
has been moving east with the circulation over the past 2-4 hours
with WSW low level flow allowing for advection of higher moisture
into the region along with training of cells at times within the
ongoing small complex of thunderstorms, supporting peak rainfall
rates between 1-2 in/hr.

The MCV is expected to maintain an east or east-northeast track
over the next 3-6 hours toward Ontario. Thermodynamic and
kinematic parameters appear to remain steady state or favorable
for repeating/training of heavy rain at times across southern
Michigan. While likely to remain isolated, the addition of 2-4
inches of rain may cause flash flooding, especially if heavy
rainfall can maintain into the Detroit metropolitan region where
the urban landscape will have greater susceptibility to runoff
from heavy rain.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43348274 42998254 42448268 41838348 41818527
            42388559 42858538 43228447