546
AWUS01 KWNH 150116
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-150715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0440
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
915 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Areas affected...Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150115Z - 150715Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving clusters of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue to focus over areas of eastern NM and
the TX Panhandle going into portions of the overnight period.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
broken cold-topped MCS impacting areas of eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle. The convection has maintained a fair degree of
organization over the last couple of hours in response to ejecting
height falls/shortwave energy advancing through the
central/southern Rockies while interacting with a moderately
unstable airmass pooled across the southern High Plains. MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are currently in place over the TX
Panhandle region.

Notably divergent flow aloft associated with the approaching
upstream upper-level trough and related DPVA will continue to
interact with a relatively moist and unstable southeasterly
low-level jet going into the overnight hours, and the expectation
is that there will be a corridor of persistent low-level
convergence around especially the southern flank of the convective
mass to promote a general southwest to northeast axis of
persistent convection.

The thermodynamic environment coupled with the level of deeper
layer ascent should favor pockets of 1.5 inch/hour rainfall rates
continuing over the next few hours. Given the persistence of these
rates, some additional storm totals going through 06Z may reach 3
to 4 inches with isolated heavier totals not out of the question
if any kind of southwest to northeast oriented convective
cell-training occurs.

Some pockets of flash flooding cannot be ruled out and especially
on an isolated basis given the expected rainfall totals.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35670193 35550147 35250125 34690132 33990189
            33480289 33440397 33750447 34190457 34740423
            35260346 35630253