056
AWUS01 KWNH 280103
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-280500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0509
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
902 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Areas affected...Southeast AZ & Southwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280101Z - 280500Z

SUMMARY... Ongoing convection associated with a thermal low along
with near record PWATs may cause possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...SPC Mesoanalysis shows a tongue of instability
persists in southeast AZ and southwest NM this evening. Ongoing
convection thriving on PWATs at or near record levels for the day
suggests that the storms have the ingredients needed to persist in
this area for several more hours. PWATs around 1.3 inches, SBCAPE
above 2,000 J/kg and the continued forcing from the nearby thermal
low are all working to keep scattered showers and thunderstorms
ongoing. Cooling cloud tops in the area also suggest strengthening
thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall.

FFGs are very low in portions of the area, at less than 1 inch per
hour. The storms when they flare up have been producing rainfall
rates to 1.5 inches per hour. Thus flash flooding is possible
especially in flood sensitive areas, arroyos, and burn scars.

Wegman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32760940 32520844 32340827 31780818 31310840
            31331094 31411135 31901122 32421076