Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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349 AWUS01 KWNH 191019 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-191430- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0466 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 619 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...northern TX/OK Panhandles into adjacent High Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 191018Z - 191430Z SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely to continue for the next 1-2 hours from the northern TX Panhandle into portions of northwestern OK but decreasing rainfall rates should allow the flash flood threat to wane through 14 to 15Z. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KAMA at 10Z continued to show a slow moving line of thunderstorms, slowly advancing south across the northern TX Panhandle. Peak MRMS-derived rainfall rates have averaged 1-3 in/hr over the past 2-3 hours, but the coverage of the higher end of that range has been waning along with a significant warming on infrared satellite imagery. Trends in VAD wind data from KAMA showed 850 mb winds weakening from ~45 kt earlier in the night down to ~25 kt at 10Z. The reduced lift across the rain-cooled outflow boundary along with weakening divergence/diffluence aloft should allow for a continued reduction in the rainfall intensity across the TX/OK Panhandles and adjacent locations within the High Plains over the next few hours. However, lingering MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg was estimated over northeastern NM into the northwestern TX Panhandle via the 10Z SPC mesoanalysis which will likely continue to support localized training with rainfall rates up to 3 in/hr for perhaps another 60-90 minutes. Additional short term training will likely maintain a flash flood threat into the remainder of the TX Panhandle and possibly northwestern OK for the next 1-2 hours but by 14-15Z, the flash flood threat is likely to be over due to this system. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are expected for the region, much of that falling early on, prior to an expected dissipation of the MCS. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...OUN...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37209931 37119864 36619818 35609861 35309988 35530184 35520292 35640350 36160368 36670317 37000229 37130151 37170000