968
AWUS01 KWNH 190418
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0464
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1217 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern KS into the MO River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190415Z - 190800Z

Summary...Areas of training are expected to maintain a flash flood
threat, at least locally, from portions of central/eastern KS into
the MO River Valley through 08Z. Additional 1-3 inch totals will
be possible, but locally higher values over 3 inches may occur
over southern portions of KS to the west of I-35.

Discussion...04Z radar imagery and surface observations showed
that a broken line of thunderstorms has moved out ahead of a slow
moving cold front over KS, preceded by a leading composite outflow
boundary extending from southwestern KS into northeastern KS and
southern IA. SPC mesoanalysis data from 04Z showed 1000-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE remained across KS out ahead of the cold front along with
anomalous precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.9 inches.
Southerly flow at 850 mb of 35-40 kt was overrunning the
rain-cooled air, maintaining scattered to numerous thunderstorms
moving toward the south and east over KS.

While convective overturning has moderated lapse rates a bit from
earlier in the evening, steep lapse rates remained over portions
of the region, especially near the western and central OK/KS
border which likely still contained 8+ C/km in the 700-500 mb
layer as sampled by 00Z soundings from DDC, OUN and AMA. These
steeper lapse rates should continue to support thunderstorms into
the night despite weakening trends in CAPE and 850 mb flow through
the remainder of the night for most areas.

Flash flooding will remain possible across a broad section of
central to eastern KS into portions of the Missouri River Valley
through 08Z where alignment of convection matches mean steering
flow from the southwest, allowing 1-2 in/hr rain rates. However,
overall weakening is expected for convection in the vicinity of
the Missouri Valley with a relative min in forcing for ascent and
as agreed upon by a majority of recent hires guidance. Farther
south, stronger convection is likely to maintain vigor for at
least the next 2-4 hours which could support additional rainfall
over 3 inches over portions of southern KS to the west of I-35 due
to training.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40709534 40689453 40189430 39079450 37909574
            37159743 36979861 36979970 37499989 38169941
            39469699