476
FXUS63 KMPX 232307
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
607 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight a small chance of rain (10 to 20%) west of I-35.

- Temperatures will warm to near 80 by Wednesday and last through
the weekend.

- The dry September continues. Chances are low in any widespread
rainfall the rest of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Early afternoon satellite imagery with radar
and surface obs showed an area of showers across the central Dakotas
that was driven by an upper level wave. There was little moisture
with this system, so much of the reflectivity wasn`t hitting the
ground, and where it was raining, it was light. Later this
afternoon, showers should increase in coverage as they approach the
eastern Dakotas, but they`ll fall apart toward sunset as they
approach western MN. SPC has the general thunder risk to the west of
the MN/Dakota border. In addition to losing the instability, a large
upper level wave will crash over the trough, which will lead to
subsidence so showers should dry up by the time they reach eastern
MN and western WI. This will lead to another dry day on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Temperatures will warm a bit and by
Wednesday highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80. There are some
small chances for rain (10 to 20%) across southern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin which account for the phasing of some tropical
moisture from the system that will move up the Gulf of Mexico, and a
cutoff upper level low that will develop over the Ozarks from the
breaking ridge up stream. This is a low confidence forecast, so did
not change the blended forecast guidance. However, the most likely
outcome is for the weather to remain dry through the weekend into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Went with a dry TAF across all sites despite the 15-20 percent
chance for showers mainly for AXN/RWF with the showers currently
in the Dakotas, as they are expected to dry up as they move east
and we lose daylight. Introduced VFR mid-level BKN CIGS to
compensate, but this should be the majority of what we see as
the line reaches central Minnesota. Otherwise the main story
will be light winds shifting from 150-180 at the beginning of
the period to variable overnight before becoming 270-300 later
in the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind W 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH