720
FXUS63 KMPX 230732
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cool start to the week with a gradual warming trend.

- The dry September continues with few chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The same cool and dry airmass that was over us on Sunday will
continue to stay over us today under high pressure. A shortwave
passing through this evening into tonight will provide for some
broad lift. With another shortwave to the south over the mid to
lower Mississippi Valley, there is not much moisture to advect
into the Upper Midwest. The lack of moisture will keep precipitation
chances low and where it does rain it will be light. This is
reflected well in ensemble products like the NAEFS, where we
stay normal for precipitable water and the 90th percentile
values remain well to the south. While the passage of this wave
is not likely to bring rain it will bring a change in flow and
airmass. This change will shift us into more of a warm air
advection period. We look likely to advect in either warmer air
or air of a similar temperature over the remainder of the week.
Thanks to this we will begin a warming trend starting on
Tuesday that will continue through to near the end of the week.
We will see highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s and by
Thursday highs will be near 80. This peak looks to continue into
the weekend. Normal highs are around 70 for this period.

With September nearing its end how does September 2024 stack up
so far? The most notable number is the total precipitation at
MSP Airport. So far this month MSP Airport has gotten 0.06
inches which is well below the current driest September of 0.24
inches in 2022. Based on the current forecast it looks likely
that this record will be set. However that does not mean the
entire area or even the entire Twin Cities metro has been in a
record dry period. We have had mainly small thunderstorms and
showers this month making rain very localized, for example our
office in Chanhassen has gotten 0.47 inches which is the third
driest in its much smaller climate record (MPX goes back to 1996
and MSP goes back to 1871). Looking past the metro we have St
Cloud at 0.35 inches (third driest), Eau Claire 1.81 (29th
driest), and Mankato 0.30 inches. So in summary we are overall
dry this month after an overall wet year, but some areas have
gotten localized heavier rain this month like Eau Claire.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

About as quiet of a TAF period as you can get. SKC to FEW250
with light or no winds. Would all be one line TAFs, but the
overnight calm becomes a light around 7 or 8 knot wind from the
south during the day on Monday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind S 5kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC