Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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187 FXUS63 KMPX 180904 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 404 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe with additional heavy rainfall. - Locally heavy rain is still possible later today into tonight, however flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a widespread threat, prompting a cancellation of the Flood Watch. - A brief break in the rain tomorrow should make for a nice day, before additional precip chances return Thursday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Yesterday evening/night`s storms have progressed north of our area this morning, allowing skies to begin clearing out. Increasing S/SE low-level flow behind the northward advancing frontal boundary will allow temperatures to rise into the low-mid 80s across much of the area. Dewpoint temperatures in the low 70s will certainly make things fell muggy again today, with heat indices potentially creeping above the 90 mark. This will also depend on our cloud cover, which the latest hi-res models suggest will fill back in shortly after sunrise. Airmass destabilization will be the big thing to watch today as we prep for another round of storms along a passing cold front from the west. A moderate to strongly unstable airmass with SBCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg would provide enough buoyancy for some robust updrafts to form within an area of adequate deep-layer shear. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail along and ahead of the leading edge of the front during the afternoon/evening when instability is maximized. As previously noted, the relatively high low-level wind shear warrants the need to watch for potential bowing structures as the line comes together. Given its progressive nature, QPF totals associated with the system look to most likely range from 0.5-1" with more localized amounts up to 2" possible. While locally heavy rain is still possible through tonight, there is a decreasing risk for widespread flash flooding potential, prompting the cancellation of the Flood Watch for our central Minnesota and western Wisconsin counties. Temperatures / dew points will drop off pretty quickly behind the front, which should feel nice after a muggy day! Tomorrow should be nice day with highs generally in the mid-70s, partly sunny skies, and relatively weak winds. Any precipitation should stay southeast of our area as well, which will allow for a nice break before rain chances return again on Thursday. Southwest flow aloft will aid several more chances for precip from Thursday through Saturday, with an additional 1-2" of rain likely for most locations, and 4"+ still possible where the strongest storms move through. Thus, continued surveillance of rivers and streams for potential flooding concerns will be needed through the end of the week. A final kick from a h500 shortwave on Saturday should give way to a more settled pattern at the start of next week, providing, at the very least, a brief break in the active weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A cluster of showers/storms is tracking into northern Minnesota and Wisconsin early this morning. Only areas near AXN and STC should have impacts from these over the next hour or so. Cigs are mainly MVFR/VFR, but some periods of IFR are possible before these storms push further north. Winds will continue to shift more southerly as the frontal boundary lifts north this morning, increasing in speed and gustiness throughout the day. We`ll enjoy a brief break in the clouds/rain until another front tracks through from west to east, producing another round of showers/storms this afternoon. Some of these storms could produce severe wind gusts and reduced visibility with heavy rainfall rates. KMSP...Any precipitation with the storms this evening should stay well north of the terminal now, resulting in a break from the clouds/rain until around 22/23z this afternoon. After the initial push of heavy rain and storms, lighter showers could persist into the evening. Winds will quickly shift out of the west as the front moves through, and then gradually turn more northwesterly into the night. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind N 5-10kts. THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts. FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Anoka-Benton-Carver- Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Pope-Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Washington-Wright. WI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn- Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...BED