Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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735 FXUS63 KMQT 140814 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 414 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Saturday before the return of showers and thunderstorms later in the weekend. - Warmer than normal next week with frequent chances for showers and storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The short quiet period has begun, welcoming in the weekend. Current RAP analysis shows the shortwave trough (responsible for yesterday`s shower and storm activity) axis centered just east of the northern Ontario and Quebec province line with a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the southern CA and AZ state line. Sfc high pressure currently expanding over much of central Canada and down in to the northern Plains is progged to shift east through tonight, compressing over northern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, the mid level ridge to the west moves east, building over the the Great Lakes region. With mostly clear skies across the UP now, temps have dropped into the 40s in the interior with low to mid 50s along the lakeshores. These low dew point depressions and calm conditions have allowed for some patchy fog to develop in the west, this should mix out this morning with diurnal heating. Temps today will be cooler than yesterday with interior highs mainly in the low to mid 70s. Those along Lake Superior, especially in the east, will see cooler temps in the 60s with the eastern shores expected to stay in the 50s. Some diurnal cu in the interior west is possible in the afternoon with some upslope support and moisture advection from the Lake Michigan Lake breeze; a lake breeze is also expected off Lake Superior this afternoon. RHs look to fall into the 40s and 30s, but with light winds mainly below 15 mph and antecedent rainfall, wildfire conditions should be benign to end the work week and begin the weekend. Mostly clear skies tonight will provide another radiative cooling period for the UP. While the airmass is not particularly dry for ideal cooling, drier PWATs noted over the east (0.65" to 0.7") will help temps settle into the low to mid 40s; lows in the mid 40s to low 50s are expected in the west half where PWATs are around 0.9". With the sfc high pressure becoming centered just north of Lake Huron by Saturday morning at around 1012 mb per the 6/14 0z HREF mean, winds are expected become near calm over the east. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Dry weather continues for most of Saturday with the midlevel ridge sliding over the area supporting surface high pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes. However, another shortwave will be rippling out of the Plains, with a tightening pressure gradient resulting in increasing southerly winds for the afternoon. Expect wind gusts to around 20 mph for most of the UP, and as soundings at least across the eastern UP remain quite dry and well-mixed, we could be flirting with some fire weather concerns as RH drops below 40%. That said, cloud cover will be on the increase throughout the day ahead of the approaching wave. With strengthening theta-e advection into the evening on the nose of a developing 40-45kt LLJ, chances for showers and rumbles of thunder sneak into the western UP by early evening. PoPs increase overnight into Sunday morning as the shortwave moves across the UP and Lake Superior. Guidance is coming into agreement on the LLJ further increasing to as high as 50-60kts, so while the timing of the passing wave (early in the day Sunday) would be unfavorable for strong/severe surface-based convection, this impressive lift and elevated instability could still be supportive of stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail. Will note a potential for heavy rain as well, with PWATs exceeding 1.5in and soundings quite saturated. Temperatures, meanwhile, will be on the increase Sunday, in spite of the round of rainfall early in the day; expect highs ranging in the 70s in the eastern UP where rain may be lingering into the afternoon while the western UP climbs as high as the mid 80s. Warm and unsettled weather will continue into next week. Monday through midweek, the Great Lakes will be situated between high- amplitude ridging over the Eastern Seaboard and deep troughing over the Rockies. Persistent southerly flow into the area will continue to pump in a warm, moist airmass; look for highs Monday and Tuesday to range well into the 80s for most of the area and even nearer to 90F in the typically warmer southerly downsloping spots. With dewpoints well into the 60s, it is looking pretty muggy. Given this unstable airmass and our area situated on the perimeter of the ridge, passing weak waves will leave us with chances for showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. Winds should also become more elevated Tuesday as a midlevel shortwave ripples out of the Rockies with a surface low likewise closing off and heading into the Northern Plains, leading to a tightening pressure gradient over the area. Another strengthening LLJ may provide the lift needed for some additional convection Tuesday night into Wednesday while the surface low moves through Ontario. From midweek onward, temperatures trend more towards normal while the pattern governing the early part of the week breaks down. Look for hit and miss rain chances the rest of the period with sporadic shortwave activity amid generally zonal midlevel flow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions will continue across the terminals as high pressure builds over the area. The exception to this is IWD where some fog has developed thanks to the calm conditions and low level moisture. Added in a tempo group to include periods of LIFR vis through early this morning when diurnal heating helps mix things out. && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 High pressure ridging over the Great Lakes will lead to tranquil conditions today and into the early part of the weekend. Winds come in at or below 10kts today, turning mainly out of the NE in western Lake Superior and eventually backing more WNW across the eastern half of the lake. Winds mainly out of the SE Saturday will be on the increase by the late afternoon, gusting up to 20 knots in the eastern half of the lake. Winds gusts to 20-25kts will be possible Sunday, then winds fall back below 20 kts Monday before increasing out of the SSE again Tuesday. Waves should generally be below 3ft for most of the period, but are expected to increase to around 3-4ft especially across the eastern half of the lake Sunday and Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jablonski LONG TERM...LC AVIATION...Jablonski MARINE...LC