506
FXUS63 KMQT 081932
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
332 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few stronger storms capable of small hail and gusty winds
  are possible into this evening, mainly east-central.

- Light rain showers are expected on Sunday with breezy north winds
gusting up to 20-30 mph, especially over the eastern U.P.

- High pressure brings a brief dry period for Sunday night through
Tuesday morning.

- Patchy frost is possible Sunday night.

- Periods of showers and storms are expected mid to late next week.

- Below normal temperatures are forecast through early next week,
but a warming pattern will follow through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Upper air pattern consists of an elongated 500 mb trough with
several upper lows in it. The low of importance is one north
northeast of Lake Superior which slowly moves to eastern Ontario by
12z Sun. As this happens, a cold front will move south through the
area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have popped up with this
front and also lake breeze boundaries and more speckled showers are
forming upstream in MN and western Lake Superior and are also headed
this way. Will have some pops moving southeastward this afternoon
along the cold front and then have some pops in with the next
upstream shortwave that could affect the north and west early this
evening. MUCAPE is about 500-1000 k/kg over most of the area with
shear low for the most part, so could still see some small hail and
gusty wind with some of these storms into this evening along the
cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The extended forecast period begins with broad troughing extending
from eastern Canada through the Great Lakes. This setup evolves into
an omega shape by the start of the work week with positively tilted
ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley stuck between a trough over
the Lower Great Lakes and another trough over Saskatchewan. As this
pattern shifts east next week, the western trough passes over the UP
later in the day Tuesday into Tuesday night. Meanwhile, another
trough beginning to move towards the Pacific Northwest today
propagates east along the Canadian Prairie Provinces to the Upper
Great Lakes for mid to late next week, sending two shortwaves over
the area. Hit and miss chances for showers continue the rest of the
work week with broad troughing over the region.

Chances for showers continue on Sunday as a cold front drops south
of the UP. Cool north flow behind the front looks to keep temps
below normal throughout the day in the 50s to mid 60s, warmest in
south central Upper MI. That said, those along the eastern Lake
Superior shores may never get out of the 40s all day. Northerly
upslope flow with an uptick in moisture noted in the model soundings
and PWATs increasing from around 0.7" to 0.9" will support mostly
cloudy skies and light rain showers through the day. As high
pressure begins to build in from the northwest, the UP dries out by
the evening. A ~40 kt LLJ passing over the eastern CWA will help
yield some breezy gusts up to 25-30 mph. Skies clear out into Sunday
night while winds turn calmer. Dry air, a cooler airmass, and light
winds will allow for better radiational cooling and lows ranging in
the 30s to lower 40s across much of the area. With some spots
potentially falling into the lower to mid 30s (particularly
throughout the interior-western and north-central UP), some frost
will be possible.

High pressure keeps the weather dry through Tuesday morning. Temps
warm up from the weekend into the 60s under sunny skies on Monday.
With increased mixing to around 900-800mb, higher mixing over the
interior west, min RHs are expected in the mid 20s to mid 30s (drier
away from the lakeshores and in the interior west). Gusts will be
stronger over the east where RHs are not as low; this does flirt
with borderline elevated wildfire conditions, but mitigating our
threat will be the antecedent wet environment courtesy of plenty of
wet weather lately.

The next round of showers and storms moves in from the west on
Tuesday as a mid level trough moves east from Manitoba to Ontario.
The shortwave rotating around it will support a surface low tracking
east along the international border from Manitoba to just north of
Lake Superior into Tuesday night. Ahead of this, expect increasing
southerly flow and warmer temperatures generally in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. The cold front tracking east during the evening will
yield showers and perhaps some thunderstorms through the evening and
hte first half of the night. While bulk shear increases to around
40kts by Tuesday afternoon, little CAPE leaves severe potential low.
With troughing over the region through late week and passing
embedded shortwaves tracking through, expect on and off rain chances
at least through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Conditions will remain at VFR levels at all TAF sites until Sun
morning when MVFR conditions move in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

West winds are expected to remain at or below 20 kts through Sunday
morning. Winds increase to 20 to 25 kts, veering northwest, by
Sunday afternoon over the east half of the lake as a jet streak
passes overhead. There is a 40-60% chance for higher observing
platforms over the eastern 3rd of the lake to see gusts approach 30
kts on Sunday. As high pressure builds in from the northwest into
Monday, winds fall back below the 20 kt threshold. The next
potential for winds to exceed 20 kts is Tuesday into Wednesday when
a low pressure system tracks north of Lake Superior, but chances of
winds exceeding 20 kts are low (<30%) given the stability over the
lake. Winds fall below 20 kts again midweek.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...LC