439
FXUS63 KMQT 191957
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
357 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Light rain showers and a couple rumbles of thunder are possible
over the east half the rest of this afternoon. Some showers and a
couple rumbles of thunder are possible over the south central
tonight.

-Keeping an eye on flooding concerns near Harvey along the Chocolay
River and over the west due to the high recent rainfall amounts.

-Moderate to heavy rain likely through first half of
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Isolated to scattered light rain showers, with possibly a couple
rumbles of thunder thrown in, look to continue over the eastern half
of the U.P. this afternoon as the decaying cold front continues
crawling eastwards. The precipitation looks to mostly conclude over
our area by early this evening as weak high pressure ridging builds
into Lake Superior. However, with a stationary front setting up over
Wisconsin tonight, we could see some on-and-off rain showers and
possibly a couple rumbles of thunder over the south central through
tonight.

Overall, temperatures today have been much cooler than what we saw
yesterday, with many areas already having hit there high around 70
to the mid 70s today. Moving into tonight, low temperatures are
expected to be cooler, mainly getting down into the 50s with some
spots possibly getting into the upper 40s.

We continue to keep an eye on flooding concerns along the Chocolay
River near Harvey and also over the west where some places got
rainfall in excess of 3 inches (some as much as 5 inches!).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Surface ridging will be centered right over the Upper Lakes on
Thursday yielding a dry a dry day for most.  Light north winds off
Lake Superior will keep temperatures in the 60s near the Lake with
pleasant low to mid 70s inland.  A weak shortwave will lift
northeast across the area during the afternoon in the southwesterly
flow aloft.  A few showers will be possible especially near the WI
line during the afternoon, but drier air should suppress most of the
activity.

The next weather maker for the U.P. will start to take shape
Thursday night as additional shortwave energy begins to eject
eastward out of the Rockies. A warm front will begin lifting
northward across the Upper Mississippi Valley late Thursday night
into Friday with warm advection precipitation moving into the
western U.P. by mid morning Friday and continuing on and off mainly
across the southern half of the U.P.

The moisture increase will be significant Friday night into Saturday
with PWATs approaching 2 inches.  As main upper trough moves out of
the Plains later Friday surface low will deepen and lift
northeastward along the boundary toward Upper Michigan by early
Saturday. Saturday will likely be a washout for most with moderate
to heavy rain.  Given recent heavy rains across portions of the U.P.
this week ponding of water will and increase in stream flows will be
the primary threats.

As the low continues to move ENE through the area Saturday night,
the cold front will push any remaining precipitation east of the
area. While some drying will occur on Sunday, one more shortwave
dropping eastsoutheastward from the Canadian border could produce
enough lift for a few additional showers on Sunday but it will
definitely be the driest of the weekend days.

Moving into early next week, expect ridging and and warming as high
pressure moves from the Plains through the Midwest. Another quick
moving front by Tuesday afternoon may bring the return of some
showers and Thunderstorms then.

With clouds and rain through the first half of the weekend,
temperatures will be a little below normal before climbing back
above normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Conditions look to improve to VFR across all of the TAF sites by the
mid afternoon, with cigs continuing to improve as we move into the
late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the gusty westerly winds
this afternoon look to veer to the northwest this afternoon and the
north this evening as they generally weaken with time today. Expect
fairly light winds tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Gusty west winds over the eastern Lake will diminish into the
evening with a stretch of light winds expected from tonight into
early Saturday with surface ridging over Lake Superior. A surface
low lifting through the Upper Lakes on Saturday will lead to
northeasterly winds up to 25 knots over the western Lake during the
day. Northwesterly winds behind the departing low should stay below
20 knots on Sunday. Southwesterly winds will return early next week
increasing to 20-25 knots ahead of another weak cold front by
Tuesday afternoon.

Moderate to heavy rain will be possible across the south half of the
Lake from later Friday through Saturday which could lead to some
dense fog development during that time.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ006.

  Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...MZ