Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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767 FXUS63 KMQT 121213 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 813 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to potentially severe storms possible this afternoon and evening with best chances over the far west. - Gusty winds expected Thursday along with lingering showers and thunderstorms. - Dry Friday and early Saturday before the return of showers and thunderstorms later in the weekend. - Warmer than normal temperatures frequent the forecast, with some areas approaching 90 for highs by next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 520 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Current RAP analysis shows a mid level trough centered over far northeastern Ontario with an embedded shortwave rotating over Lake Superior. The sfc low is centered below the mid level trough with an occluded front stretching south through central Upper MI. As these two features shift east, the occluded front will continue east out of the UP this morning. Some scattered clouds and isolated showers ahead of the front in the eastern CWA will continue east with it. This will leave the UP mostly clear and dry by around the morning commute. Today, mid level flow will be fairly zonal over Upper MI as the trough to the north moves east through far northern Ontario. An additional trough currently over British Columbia and Alberta moves east over the Canadian Prairie Provinces today. An ~110kt upper level jet will move east over ND and into MN. With mainly southwesterly low level flow, temps look to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s in the afternoon over the UP save for low to mid 70s in the east near Lake Michigan with winds off the cooler lake. With minimal capping noted in model soundings, some cu development is expected late in the afternoon. Given the drier air noted in model soundings and little synoptic support, storms will struggle to initiate in the afternoon. That said, there is good model agreement in the scattered showers and storms currently over western ND and northern MN moving east to northern WI/Upper MI and Lake Superior for the latter part of the afternoon. While some of these storms could be stronger with bulk shear increasing to around 55kts and the 6/12 0Z HREF mean MUCAPE building to 500-750 J/kg (highest over the far west), the primary threat for strong to severe storms will come in the evening as a second round develops in the MN Arrowhead. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 553 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The extended period will immediately start out this evening in the middle of a convective event as the first of two shortwaves continues its progression across the region. The question of intensity, though, still remains the biggest challenge. With decent 0-6 km shear values near 50 kts, thunderstorms will have a chance to maintain some strong to severe potential. But, the limiting factor in the Thu 00-06Z time frame remains instability. With MUCAPE values in the 250-500 J/kg range and CIN values well below -50 J/kg, storms will most likely diminish as they track across Upper Michigan into tonight with just some rumbles of thunder and lingering rain over the eastern third by Thu 09-12Z. Thursday, after the early morning round of showers/thunderstorms, it will generally be quiet through the morning. Nonetheless, strong west-northwest winds will follow in the wake of the associated cold front. And, then a few showers/thunderstorms could develop again during Thursday afternoon as the next shortwave provides a bit of lift during the best diurnal heating of the day. Severe weather isn`t expected, but cannot entirely rule out a few strong ones with some gusty winds and small hail. The main impact Thursday will be the winds outside of any storms, which will be strong as they mix down behind the aforementioned cold front. Widespread 25 to 30 mph winds are expected with isolated gusts in excess of 35+ mph per GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. After the winds diminish and rain tapers off Thursday evening, there will be a period of benign weather through Saturday morning due to ridging aloft. With the calmer weather will be slightly cooler, but still above normal temperatures in the 70s before the start of another warming trend through the weekend as guidance continues to trend toward mid to upper 80s Monday through Wednesday. Along with the heat, though, will be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday morning as the next surface low approaches from the southwest. This low will track across the region over the weekend quickly followed by a broad upper low. Details with timing and strength remain low at this point, but the main consensus is a trend toward another hot period with active weather. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 813 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the day with potential MVFR at CMX and SAW with thunderstorms this evening into tonight. Expect increasing cloud this afternoon as the first round of showers and storms moves in from the west. A brief break is expected before a stronger round follows a similar track from northern Minnesota through the Upper Peninsula this evening into tonight. Confidence is growing in IWD and CMX seeing this round move through around 1z with a later, and less confident arrival time, at SAW. Future TAF issuances should provide a better window for the expected storms. Dry air intruding from the northwest tonight should help clear out skies late tonight and Thursday morning. Otherwise, expect increasing southerly winds today with gusts to 20-25kts possible mainly at IWD. Another breezy day is expected Thursday with gusts at all sites increasing into the 20-30 kt range. && .MARINE... Issued at 454 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Southerly winds mainly 20 knots and lower will persist across Lake Superior into this afternoon. But, as the high pressure is replaced by a series of disturbances, an uptick in southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots can be expected late this afternoon. In addition, rain and general thunderstorms will be possible across the far western portions of the lake by late morning, overspreading the remainder of the lake by this afternoon. Some storms could become strong to severe, though, late this afternoon/evening mainly over the far western portions of Lake Superior. Thursday, winds will become west- northwesterly behind a cold front with 20 to 25 knots (isolated to 30 knots) outside of any additional thunderstorm chances through the day. By Friday, winds will return to less than 20 knots with the return of high pressure where they will stay until early Sunday morning. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jablonski LONG TERM...TDUD AVIATION...Jablonski MARINE...TDUD