578
FXUS65 KMSO 242002
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
202 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is expected to move through the region
Wednesday evening. A majority of the ensembles depict the timing
of the front to move through north-central Idaho and northwestern
Montana between 6 and 9 pm MDT, but then the front weakens as it
moves through the remainder of western Montana and Lemhi County
after 9 pm MDT. Gusty southwest to west winds to 30 mph are
expected with the passage of the front. There is a 50 percent
chance for thunderstorms from Clearwater County, Idaho north and
east towards Kalispell and Glacier National Park. Storms could
contain small hail, lightning, and gusty winds over 35 mph. The
showers and storm threat with the front could bring sudden and
erratic winds to area lakes of northwest Montana. With this in
mind, we have issued wind advisories to cover these threats. There
is a 50 to 60 percent chance for wind gusts exceeding 40 mph in
the following locations: Yaak, Marion area, Ashley Lake area and
Hot Springs. There is a 30 percent chance for heavy rain towards
Logan Pass Wednesday night.

Southerly winds between 10 and 20 mph will continue on Flathead
Lake into Thursday. Not quite lake wind advisory-worthy, but could
be choppy in places nonetheless.

Somewhat cooler and breezy, zonal flow Thursday and Friday will
transition to more ridging over the weekend with temperatures
warming back into the 70s and 80s. There is a 30 to 40 percent
chance for a cold front to bring showers and gusty winds to
northwest Montana again on Sunday. The probability for a front
increases, up to 70 to 80 percent by Monday. So the bottom line is
that one or both of those days could get quite breezy for
recreation on area lakes in northwest Montana. Also the drier air
behind the front could increase our chances for another bout of
frost Monday or Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions with generally light winds are expected
for the remainder of today (Tuesday). Southerly winds will
gradually increase on Wednesday in response to an incoming cold
front that is expected to move across north-central Idaho and
northwest Montana between 26/0000Z and 26/0300Z (6 and 9 pm MDT
Wednesday). Strong gusty winds to 40 knots, small hail, lightning
and brief heavy rain are possible with the showers and
thunderstorms. The front will gradually weaken as it moves into
southwest Montana by 26/0600z (12 am MDT Thursday). Mountain wave
activity is expected to develop over the Continental Divide,
especially towards Glacier National Park Thursday morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower
     Clark Fork Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$