Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
725 FXUS65 KMSO 261949 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 149 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .DISCUSSION...A cold front is approaching the Northern Rockies today. Increasing instability and moisture in place will trigger showers and thunderstorms across the region. Showers and storms have been virtually non-existent thus far thanks to cloud cover. However, skies are starting to clear in Idaho. With clearing skies, we expect scattered showers and storms to begin to light up the radar late this afternoon and evening. Precipitable waters around an inch will be conducive for some locally heavy rains, however storms will be moving pretty fast, so heavy rains will be of short duration (leading to a lower probability of localized flash flooding). Any storms that develop will be accompanied by gusty outflow winds, lightning, and even some hail. Expect wind gusts of 25-35 mph, though stronger storms may produce local gusts to around 40 mph. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue overnight as the front moves through the region. Cooler temperatures and unstable air behind the front Thursday will result in scattered showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region. It`s looking like precipitation will wrap around the center of the low and bring rains to the Continental Divide/Glacier NP and into the Northern Flathead valley Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. evening. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday will be pleasant days with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Sunday and Monday, another short wave will pass through the region and once again bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region, though it should keep relatively cooler temps in place, ranging in the 70s to lower 80s. The rest of Independence week looks pretty dry with the exception of some showers along the Continental Divide and far Northwest Montana near the Canadian Border. As the locals have said for years: "Summer in Montana starts on July 4th", and it`s looking like this year is shaping up that way. Models are becoming more consistent in showing a strong ridge across the southwestern U.S. expanding northward into the Northern Rockies. This scenario looks pretty good for temperatures to climb into the 90s for the first time this year in several places across western Montana on July 4th weekend. && .AVIATION...Unstable and moist atmospheric conditions, along with partial clearing, will lead to the development of shower and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Lightning, gusty outflow winds, and heavy rain are the predominant threats from thunderstorms, which will affect all terminals through at least 27/0400Z. Nocturnal thunderstorms can be expected to continue thereafter, with coverage likely impacting KMSO, KGIC, KHRF, and KBTM. Peripheral storms are possible and may impact KGPI and KSMN to a lesser extent. Expect nocturnal storms to linger through roughly 27/1500Z. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...&& $$