Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
267 FNUS75 KMSO 161302 FWSMSO Spot Forecast for Elkhorn Ridge Fire National Weather Service Missoula MT 702 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MDT on September 16. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION...Moisture and instability will increase this afternoon, leading to showers and scattered thunderstorms after 1300. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and small hail. Shower activity will become more widespread tonight into Tuesday as a closed low moves into the region. .REST OF TODAY... * Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms after 1300 PDT. * CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...30 percent. * Chance Lightning....30 percent. * LAL.................0 until 1200, then 2 until 1500, then 3. * Max Temperature.....70-75. * Min Humidity........40-45 percent. * Wind (20 ft)........Variable 2-4 mph becoming southeast 4-6 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl increasing to 6500 ft agl late in the afternoon. * Mixing Winds........Southeast 10 mph shifting to the northeast 10 mph late in the afternoon. * Haines Index........3 very low. * Precip Amount.......0.06 inches. TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........73 85 61 54 72 72 72 72 72 72 Weather cov..... LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Chc of ltng (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 30 30 LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 Temp............50 51 55 58 61 66 68 70 71 69 RH..............77 77 73 66 60 58 51 43 43 45 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 6 6 20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 4.5 Transp wind dir.E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE NE Transp wind spd.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 5 10 10 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms. Rain showers likely overnight. * CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...60 percent. * Chance Lightning....40 percent. * LAL.................3 until 2100, then 2 until 2400, then 3 until 0300, then 2. * Min Temperature.....48-53. * Max Humidity........79-84 percent. * Wind (20 ft)........North 3-6 mph. * Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl. * Mixing Winds........North 10 mph shifting to the east 5 mph overnight. * Precip Amount.......0.12 inches. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........86 86 86 86 86 86 71 71 76 79 79 86 Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CWR.............60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Chc of ltng (%).40 40 40 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 LAL.............3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 Temp............67 65 61 59 57 56 55 55 54 54 53 52 RH..............49 57 64 68 67 69 71 70 71 72 72 74 20 FT wind dir..N N N N NE NE N NE N N N N 20 FT wind spd..6 6 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Transp wind dir.N NW NW N N N N E E E E SE Transp wind spd.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TUESDAY... * Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...70 percent. * Chance Lightning....30 percent. * LAL.................2 until 1200, then 3. * Max Temperature.....55-60. * Min Humidity........62-67 percent. * Wind (20 ft)........Variable 2-4 mph becoming southwest 4-7 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl. * Mixing Winds........West 10 mph * Haines Index........2 very low. * Precip Amount.......0.15 inches. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........89 99 89 89 89 93 96 96 96 96 96 96 Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CWR.............70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 Chc of ltng (%).20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Temp............52 51 50 51 52 53 54 56 57 57 56 55 RH..............72 81 84 83 83 80 75 71 68 67 68 70 20 FT wind dir..SE E SE S S S S S S SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 2 2 5 5 5 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 Transp wind dir.SE SE SE S S S SW W NW NW NW NW Transp wind spd.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $$ Forecaster...Lukinbeal Requested by...Bret Lewis Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2420735.13/MSO .DELDT 09/16/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL bret.lewis@usda.gov