Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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956 FXUS66 KMTR 190630 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1130 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 131 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Isolated to scattered rain showers continue into this evening, tapering off from north to south gradually through Thursday afternoon. A warming trend is on tap for by this upcoming weekend and into early next week with temperatures rebounding to near seasonal averages. && .UPDATE... Issued at 736 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 A low pressure system continues to churn offshore with just a rogue rain shower over the southernmost coastal waters to show for it. No lightning strikes were recorded within the CWA today. The forecast remains on track with no updates anticipated at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 131 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 An upper level low remains off of the North Bay coast at this hour and will continue to drop southward throughout the day before moving onshore over the Central Coast tonight/tomorrow. As such, much of the rainfall from this system will remain light and some locations may not see any rainfall at all! There remains a slight chance of thunderstorms across the North Bay this afternoon before the thunderstorm threat focuses on the southern portion of the Central Coast on Thursday. The threat generally remains less than 15% however, so confidence of thunderstorm development remains low. Wrap around moisture from the system as it pushes inland will result in the continued rain chances (and low end thunderstorm chances) into tomorrow over the Central Coast but the North Bay and Greater San Francisco Bay Area are expected to be dry beyond late this evening. Any thunderstorms that to develop will have the potential to produce isolated, brief downpours. Temperatures both today and tomorrow will be 5-15 degrees below seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 131 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Friday afternoon will still be below normal across the region as the upper level trough begins to push further inland. The warm-up doesn`t begin until Saturday with near to slightly below normal temperatures. Sunday and into early next week is when temperatures are expected to be slightly above average as high pressure from the eastern Pacific begins to build inland. The marine layer also looks to return as a result with night and morning low clouds likely into next week. Low clouds will the retreat to the coast by the afternoon each day throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 IFR and MVFR CIGs build through the night last into the mid to late morning with some light rain lingering around the Monterey Bay and Central Coast. Pockets of drizzle and mist will affect the coast as well as the Monterey Bay and STS. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into Thursday afternoon, but status lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate winds to build into the afternoon and linger into the evening. Coastal cloud cover moves inland slightly early Tuesday evening, affecting both bays with IFR and MVFR CIGS becoming widespread later that night. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs build into the late night and last into the late morning with light to moderate winds. Winds increase into and become moderate in the mid afternoon. Winds will reduce slightly into Thursday evening and MVFR CIGs return in the late evening and early night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Lingering showers along with MVFR/IFR CIGs last through most of the thing. CIGs lower into early Thursday with mist and drizzle affecting the area. CIGs scatter and winds become more moderate into Thursday afternoon. IFR CIGs return Thursdsay evening as winds reduce. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1128 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Northwesterly breezes will be gentle to moderate, increasing to become moderate to fresh over the outer waters overnight. Seas will be moderate, building to become rough in the outer waters overnight. There`s up to a 15% chance for thunderstorms through tomorrow which could produce lightning, locally heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds, and small hail. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea