873
FXUS66 KMTR 171154
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
454 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Pleasant day today with below normal temperatures and clear skies
inland. Marine stratus keep a hold on the coastline. Another round
of very light rain possible Wednesday. Warming trend on tap for
the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Not much notable change to the short term forecast over the last
24 hours. Today will be a fairly pleasant day with temps in the
60s and 70s area-wide. Nice and sunny inland, but the coastal
areas will hang on to the marine stratus thanks to a reforming
marine layer in the wake of the departing trough. There is a
slight chance of drizzle to end the day today along coastal areas
and ranges as the next upper trough approaches, bringing light
rain chances Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The system coming in Wednesday still looking weaker on the wind
side. Thinking more in line with 20-25 mph gusts as the front
rolls trough Tuesday afternoon, and still confined to the coast
and gap areas. A bit of a better chance for thunder with the
Wednesday system with increased low level moisture and slightly
better cooling aloft. Still a low chance (~15%) that mainly exists
over the North Bay through the mid-to-late morning. Rain amounts
still look to be on the lower side, if any. Beyond Wednesday there
really isn`t much noteworthy to write about. A casual warm up is
on tap going into the weekend that will bring our temperatures to
around seasonal normals. By the end of the weekend, there is still
a good deal of disagreement in ensemble guidance regarding the
strength of a possible ridge pattern. More on that in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

MVFR CIGs last into the late morning. Pockets of drizzle and mist
will affect the coast as well as the Bays and STS in the late
night through much of the morning. Winds stay light to moderate
through the morning. Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into
Sunday afternoon, but status lingers on the immediate coast.
Expect moderate winds to build into the afternoon and linger into
the evening. Coastal cloud cover moves slightly early Tuesday
evening, affecting SNS and MRY with IFR and MVFR CIGS becoming
widespread later that night.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs last into the late morning with some
mist and pockets of fog in the area. Expect light to moderate
winds overnight. CIGs erode as winds build in the late morning.
Wind gusts will reduce slightly into Tuesday evening as MVFR CIGs
return.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGs with mist and drizzle last
through the late morning. Expect visibilities to improve in the
late morning as CIGs scatter and winds become more moderate. IFR
CIGs return early Tuesday evening as winds reduce.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 446 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Winds and rough seas are gradually abating leading to calmer
conditions across the waters. This break in hazardous seas lasts
through Tuesday before another cold front brings the return of
strong NW winds and rough seas to the exposed coastal waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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