Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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337 FXUS66 KMTR 211017 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 317 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Gradual warming continues this afternoon, though todays highs will still be at or slightly below normal for most locations across our area. The potential for moderate HeatRisk Monday and Tuesday remains in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 315 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure expanding across our area today and tomorrow will result in quiet weather with gradual warming today and tomorrow. Marine boundary layer (re: Ft Ord profiler) was steady at around 2k ft yesterday, with similar low level onshore flow persisting today. Low level stratus will clear farther inland by mid morning over the Bay Area and late morning around gaps and valleys around Monterey Bay. Some low stratus will linger over coastal communities this afternoon, but will see more of a mix of sun and clouds than what was realized on Friday. This will help temps near the coastline get in on the gradual warming that will occur farther inland. Tomorrow will be similar, just a few degrees warmer as H50 heights continue to slightly increase. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 315 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A weak upper level low begins to develop over the California Central Coast tomorrow interrupting the expanding area of high pressure to our west over open water. Deterministic guidance is in a little better agreement with the evolution of the upper level disturbance than in previous runs. The weak closed low wanders southward Monday, lifting back to the north offshore of our area on Tuesday, and then farther north to be absorbed by the Polar Jet on Wednesday. The net result appears to be less impactful heat event for Monday and Tuesday than previously thought, though moderate HeatRisk remains a possibility for many interior locations for both Monday and Tuesday. Persistent, offshore upper level troughing for the second half of next week will help cool daytime temps back to around seasonal averages for Wednesday and beyond. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Coastal stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ will move inland on onshore winds tonight and Saturday morning. Conditions improving to MVFR-VFR back to the coastline and bays by late morning and early afternoon Saturday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR, then tempo IFR ceiling 10z-14z Saturday with prevailing IFR ceiling until 18z. Onshore wind 5 to 15 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ tonight and Saturday morning, conditions improving to MVFR-VFR by late morning and afternoon. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 838 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Northwesterly breezes will be gentle to moderate, with strong gusts over the outer waters. Seas will be moderate, continuing to build and remain rough in the outer waters. Winds decrease and seas abate beginning Tuesday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea