460
FXUS66 KMTR 141732
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1032 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Slight temperature warm up for Friday, especially away from the
coast. Near normal temperatures over the weekend. Northerly winds
will increase later Friday and persist over the weekend. The
stronger winds will lead to hazardous conditions over the coastal
waters and elevated fire weather conditions overland. Longer range
outlook shows a notable warm up late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 208 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024
(Today and tonight)

Overnight satellite imagery shows a June Gloom-ish type picture
with marine layer stratus covering the coast from the Golden Gate
southward. The stratus is also at a depth of 1700 feet per Fort
Ord profiler with decent inland coverage around Monterey Bay,
Hollister, and Salinas Valley. Despite the cloudy start for some
areas, today will generally be warmer than Thursday. The reason?
Building shortwave ridge aloft in from the south and increasing
N-S gradient (SFO-ACV). In other words, a higher likelihood of
seeing sunshine today, even at the coast. Temperatures today will
be in the 60s to mid 70s coast/bays and upper 70s to upper 90s
inland. The warmest temperatures will be interior portions of
Monterey/San Benito with isolated HeatRisk values in the Moderate
category.

For tonight, the shortwave ridge building in from the south will
battle a passing upper level trough through NorCal and the PacNW.
This passing trough will help to established increasing N-S
pressure gradients and developing offshore flow over the higher
terrain. As a result, the marine layer will be much less and
confined more to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024
(Saturday through Thursday)

The weekend into early next week: the shortwave ridge gets
flattened as the aforementioned longwave trough (embedded upper
low) becomes more entrenched across the West Coast. The end
result? Cooler, but seasonable, temperatures. Highs ranging from
60s to mid 70s coast/bays and mid 70s to lower 90s inland. The
more noteworthy weather item over the weekend will be the
increasing northerly flow leading to marine hazards and fire
weather concerns. See MARINE and FIRE WEATHER sections for
specific details. Generally speaking, the northerly gradient will
increase further and peak close to -8.5mb for SFO-ACV by Saturday
night/Sunday. That type of set up will make it hard for the marine
layer to remain , but also support wind gusts of 35-45 mph. Could
even see some gusts approach 50 mph over the coastal waters.
Confidence is pretty high for the stronger wind potential as
ensembles and ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlight portions of
the CWA. In fact, the ECMWF EFI pin-points strongest winds along
the Big Sur coast south to Pt Conception. While not strong enough
to warrant a Wind Advisory they will be able to blow loose items
around, especially along the coast, bays, and N-S oriented
valleys.

Tuesday and beyond: Winds finally ease as the N-S begins to relax
mitigating Marine and Fire Weather concerns. Interesting evolution
of the longwave pattern middle of next week. While the pattern
looks "troughy" it does show rising 500 mb heights over CA. More
importantly, the warming of 850 mb temperatures. This begins to
show up by Wednesday and then continue through next week. Rising
500 mb heights and warming 850 mb temperatures will kick off a
warming and trend. Latest long range outlook from WPC highlights
portions of the Central Valley and SoCal for Excessive Heat.
Cluster analysis and NBM guidance supports this highlighting from
WPC. Official forecast late next weekend has triple heat
impacting interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Will need to monitor over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Most of the stratus have cleared creating VFR conditions through the
region. VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF period. Models do
hint at a slight chance of low ceilings tonight near Monterey Bay
but confidence is low at this moment. Winds start to build to breezy
to strong, with chances of gusty winds near the coast and gaps.
Winds diminish overnight but will remain relatively moderate to
breezy with a chance of LLWS near North Bay as winds become light
at the surface. Winds rebuild towards late Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, with high confidence
that winds will keep stratus mixed out. Onshore winds build to
breezy and gusty this afternoon, then gradually becoming stronger
into late afternoon. Models do not show that AWW winds are expected,
but winds are expected to get up to 33 knots and will continue to
monitor if there is any changes need. Gusty winds diminish overnight
but sustained winds remain breezy before becoming gusty again
Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Models hint at
a small chance for MVFR/IFR conditions overnight but low confidence
at this moment. Winds become breezy in the afternoon before
returning to light to moderate overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1032 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Gale force gusts and strong north and northwest winds build
across waters and last through much of the weekend. Significant
wave heights build up to around 12 to 15 feet in the outer waters
and 10 to 14 feet in the inner waters continue into the weekend.
Hazardous conditions continue into the next work week as winds
remain strong and seas remain elevated. Mid work week, seas start
to diminish.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Through The Weekend...

*Less impactful marine layer
*Increasing northerly winds, especially higher terrain
*Lowering relative humidity values day and night

No notable change from previous forecast. Friday will feature the
last full day of onshore flow with an impactful marine layer
(cool/higher RH). By late Friday night/early Saturday winds become
more northerly over the higher terrain of the N and E Bay with
gusts 25-35 mph. The developing offshore flow will usher in
moderate to locally poor humidity recoveries above 1,000 feet. The
drier airmass will ultimately spread across the entire district
Saturday afternoon with 15-30% RH minimums across the interior. A
slight uptick in RH recoveries on Saturday night as the marine
layer tries to re-establish itself below 1,000 feet. Above 1,000
feet will feature another night with moderate to locally poor
humidity recoveries Saturday night into Sunday. Despite some
strong winds and lowering humidity onshore flow never completely
goes aways. It would definitely be on the unusual side to issue a
Red Flag Warning in June with some hint of a marine layer/onshore
flow. Therefore, will keep a headline in place and continue to
message elevated fire weather concerns. It should be noted, that
does not mean grass fires will not be in the equation over the
weekend. Fine fuels like grass will support fires as seen by
recent fire trends. However, larger fires with thicker fuels (non-
grass) will be less likely. 100 and 1000 fuels are still holding
onto some winter moisture. A great way to visually see this is
watching ERC trends. The ERC forecast through the weekend does
show a trend toward seasonal levels, but not into the widespread
critical range.

Regardless, individuals with outdoor activities planned this
weekend should be fire weather aware. Be mindful and don`t be
"that spark".

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
     Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-
     10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Reyes
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea