Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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265 FXUS66 KMTR 101555 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 855 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 405 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The warm up begins today with hot temperatures expected over the next few days. Starting Thursday, the cool down begins as troughing resumes. && .UPDATE... Issued at 854 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Impressive stratus coverage this morning with stratus extending all the way up the Salinas Valley into Paso Robles. Current satellite imagery shows stratus beginning to dissipate inland with clearing expected by mid-morning. Expect high temperatures today to be on average 5 to 10 degrees higher than they were yesterday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland, mid 70s to low 80s closer to the coast, and upper 50s to mid 60s directly along the coast. Minor heat risk is forecast for most of the Bay Area and Central Coast today. Portions of the North Bay, East Bay Hills, and the South Bay have a moderate heat risk in effect for today. Individuals who are sensitive to heat should remember to drink plenty of water and to take breaks while participating in outdoor activities. Otherwise, the overall forecast remains on track with high temperatures from this heat wave peaking on Tuesday before a cool down begins Wednesday.&& .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 405 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Buckle up, as day 1 of warmer temperatures is here! You`ve heard us say it again and again this past weekend, but the day has finally arrived. So lets dive in. While its currently cool and comfortable across the region in the low to mid 50s, with satellite showing stratus trickling in through coastal mountain gaps, temperatures will begin to increase today as ridging begins. Inland regions will largely reach into the lower 90s, with areas closer to the bay shorelines achieving the upper 70s to low 80s. Along the immediate coastline, temperatures will largely remain in the lower 60s. With decent onshore flow this afternoon, and stratus lingering in the morning, temperatures along the coast will be comfortable for most. Breezy onshore winds in the late afternoon will serve as a reprieve from the heat this afternoon and evening. Overnight lows for most regions will then be in the mid to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 405 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The forecast continues to be in good shape, so won`t reinvent the wheel too much with this long term discussion. Tuesday, temperatures increase a few degrees compared to today with upper 90s expected for most inland regions, and the warmest spots reaching into the low 100s. Areas expected to reach the low 100s are the northern portions of Sonoma and Napa counties, the southern Salinas valley and San Benito county, and more generally along the easternmost portions of counties bordering the Central Valley. Tuesday will be the warmest day we see this week. As a result, HeatRisk is largely in the Moderate category for most inland areas, indicating that this has the potential to impact most individuals sensitive to heat (ill, elderly, young, pregnant), or simply those without adequate cooling methods (such as air conditioning) or shelter. Minor HeatRisk is present for all other areas, minus the immediate coastline. A Heat Advisory has been issued for inland areas from 11am Tuesday through 8pm Tuesday. Warm temperatures and Minor HeatRisk for most areas persists into Wednesday, but begin to drop by a few degrees, with high temps largely similar to those on Monday. Coastal areas throughout this event will remain relatively cool in the mid to upper 60s, perhaps touching the lower 70s on Tuesday as onshore flow helps maintain more comfortable temperatures. As it currently stands, models continue to show light onshore flow persisting at the surface. During this heat keep in mind these safety tips: Make sure you are staying adequately hydrated during times of warmer temperatures, take breaks in the shade if working outdoors, and check in on loved ones who perhaps fall into the demographics of those most sensitive to heat. Additionally, if planning to visit the coast or a body of water to cool off, make sure you wear a lifejacket, swim ideally near a lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock. Towards Thursday, high temperatures take a dip and begin to cool off as troughing resumes. A cutoff low hanging off the coast of southern California will lift out to our northeast, inducing the cool-off. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 412 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 IFR/MVFR CIGs have moved far enough inland to affect all of the TAF sites, but are expected to erode in the mid to late morning. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning before increasing this afternoon, with gusty winds along the immediate coast and at SFO. Expect winds to reduce into Monday evening as stratus begins to move slightly inland. This will offer IFR/MVFR CIGs along the coast and affecting MRY, then SNS and finally OAK and APC into early Tuesday. Pockets of mist and drizzle will be possible along the coast overnight as well. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR/IFR CIGs linger into the mid morning before clearing. Winds decrease into the mid morning before breezy westerly winds arrive Monday afternoon with peak gusts around 20 kts. Gusts taper off into the late evening but winds stay moderate through Tuesday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR CIGS with pockets of drizzle last with light to moderate winds last into the late morning. Expect more moderate to breezy winds to arrive in the late morning as CIGs thin. Winds become light into Monday evening as IFR CIGs approach the terminals. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 846 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Breezy and gusty northwesterly winds continue along with rough seas for the outer waters. Winds increase in through the mid week with gale-force gusts expected in the northern waters. Significant wave heights will mostly be dominated by wind driven waves, though there is a moderate northwesterly swell and a low southwesterly swell mixed in. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ504-506-510- 513>515-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM....AC AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea