374
FXUS63 KOAX 161713
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1213 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic shower and storm chances through the weekend,
  typically peaking at night. Highest chances are currently
  Tuesday night into Wednesday and Friday night into Saturday
  (40-70% chance).

- Temperatures are expected to remain above-normal through the
  work week with highs in the 80s.

- Cooler weather favored this weekend into next week with highs
  in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Early this morning, scattered showers and storms associated
with a low level jet/moisture transport and some weak shortwave
energy extended from western ND southward into western KS. These
are expected to gradually push eastward through this morning,
and while the ongoing storms are expected to dissipate prior to
reaching our area, guidance seems to be in decent agreement that
low level moisture transport refocuses farther east around
daybreak, leading to redevelopment across central into eastern
NE. These also will dissipate as they push east, so precip
chances will largely be confined to areas near and west of
Highway 77. An additional bit of shortwave energy also looks to
slide through early this afternoon which may lead to some
lingering precip in northeast NE as suggested by several CAMs,
but soundings are somewhat dry so wouldn`t expect it to amount
to too much. Expect amounts to mostly remain below 0.25" through
this afternoon. Otherwise, expect highs in the mid 80s, though
any lingering precip/cloud cover could keep us a few degrees
cooler in some spots.

Expect a similar setup tonight heading into Tuesday with
another weakening broken band of showers and storms pushing east
into the area. Once again not expecting much in the way of
rainfall for most, though a few spots could near 0.25". Highs
are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s, pending clouds and
precip.

Meanwhile, a trough will continue to dig over the western CONUS
with a cutoff low ejecting northeastward into WY/MT by Tuesday
afternoon/evening. An attendant surface boundary will push east
into the area with guidance in good agreement of a more
organized band of showers and storms moving across much of NE
before weakening just as it approaches IA as moisture transport
decreases during the day Wednesday. However, expect
redevelopment over eastern NE/southwest IA Wednesday evening
into Thursday morning as the low level jet ramps back up.

We`ll remain in a pattern of periodic storm chances Thursday
through the weekend with additional bits of shortwave energy
sliding through and low level moisture transport pointing into
our area nightly. By Thursday evening, precip chances climb
above 30% for a vast majority of the area and remain there
through throughout most of the weekend. The strongest system
looks to move through sometime Friday evening through Saturday,
bringing shower and storm chances into the 50-70% range.
However, still some questions on exact timing and track of the
system, so those chances probably still have room to increase
once that gets narrowed down.

Throughout this timeframe, severe weather chances currently
appear to be on the lower side as deep layer shear looks pretty
weak, but there will be a little bit of instability to work with
at times, so can`t completely rule out a few periods of
interest. For what it`s worth, various GEFS-based machine
learning severe weather probabilities suggest daily 5% chances
at least clipping our area Wednesday through Saturday. Currently
thinking highest chances will be when that stronger system
moves through Friday night/Saturday, but still lots of details
to be worked out between now and then. Otherwise, expect
continued highs in the 80s to perhaps lower 90s Thursday and
Friday, before we cool off into the 70s and perhaps upper 60s
with and behind the weekend system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail into early Tuesday. From about 09z
Tuesday through the end of the forecast period, latest CAM data
indicate the potential for widely scattered showers and storms,
which could briefly drop visibilities into the MVFR category.
However, confidence in specific timing and location of that
convection is currently too low to include a SHRA/TSRA mention
in the forecast. Otherwise, a brief light shower is possible
(20% chance) at KOFK prior to 20z today, and at KLNK in the
19-20z time frame (20% chance). South winds with sustained
speeds of 13-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt are expected this
afternoon at the terminal locations. The gusty winds are likely
to continue tonight at KOFK, while diminishing at KOMA and KLNK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Mead