240
FXUS63 KOAX 232311
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
611 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures through the work/school week with low
  chance (20-30%) of showers Tuesday; otherwise mostly dry
  conditions through Thursday.

- Complex weather pattern late in the week, as upper low
  interacts with tropical system, could affect longer range
  precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

After a weekend of active weather, the forecast quiets a bit for the
work week. The last of the sprinkles and showers have come to an end
as the mid-level trof slides east.

Surface analysis reveals a high pressure axis draped directly
across the Corn Belt stretching from the panhandle of Texas to
the arrowhead of Minnesota. With light winds and clear skies
over northeast Nebraska this morning, a few stations slipped
into the 30s for the first time this season.

Under the sunshine, temperatures are peaking near 70. Near
record highs Friday and Saturday are a thing of the past. Over
the past 30 years, only one of five years managed 90F on October
1st or later.

WV analysis reveals the mid-level shortwave pushing northeast into
Iowa this afternoon with weak ridging over the Gulf Coast.
Pacific and Atlantic coasts are each being influenced by upper-level
lows.

.TONIGHT and TUESDAY...

Tonight`s temps may be considered cool, especially after the
warm weekend, but they`ll be warmer for much of the forecast
area thanks in part to veering winds that become westerly
overnight. Expect lows near 50 for most.

A mid-level shortwave diving southeast drags a cold front
through the CWA over the course of Tuesday with NW wind gusts
of 15-25 mph. Cold air advection will be weak to moderate and
the system will have very little moisture to work with. Still,
have maintained 20-30% PoPs near the front as it dives
southeast. Generally, expect only nuisance showers / sprinkles
with none to scant QPF of a hundredth or so. We`ll be squinting
at the bottom of the rain gauge at OAX.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

As the shortwave deepens into a low, cuts off, and pushes
southeast, it will be interesting to watch as it interacts with
the tropical cyclone forecast to develop near the Yucatan
Peninsula and push through the Gulf of Mexico. We could see
some interesting Fujiwhara effects as the lows spin around each
other.

Diverging guidance leaves this forecaster uncertain on precip
chances by the end of this week. We may see some backside
precipitation Saturday or Sunday as the now combined low
pressure system meanders north.

Until then, expecting seasonal temperatures and a dry forecast.
As fuels continue to dry, fire concerns will grow. NWS Omaha is
in regular contact with fire program managers across the area to
get a handle on latest conditions. Red flag warnings will be
issued when wind and humidity criteria are met.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A weak cold front will drift through the region, from northwest
to southeast between 06-14Z tonight. There will be a slight
chance for a few showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of
thunder with the frontal passage, however the chance of these
showers impacting the TAF sites remains too low to include a
mention at this time. In addition to the chance for rain, we
will see a wind shift from southeast to northwest as the front
moves through. Winds will be light through the overnight
period, but are expected to increase to 10-12 kts by 14-17Z
Tuesday. A few gusts near 20 kts will be possible, especially at
KOFK, Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...KG