837
FXUS63 KOAX 060435
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon. A few
  stronger gusts up to 40-50 mph possible.

- Overnight showers and storms possible Friday night - early
  Saturday.

- Mostly dry through the weekend with highs in the mid 70s to
  mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Mostly clear skies across the area early this afternoon. A cold
front is starting to drop south, already having moved through
Knox and Cedar Counties. This front will continue to move south
across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon,
possibly bringing a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
or two, with best chances for southwest Iowa this afternoon.
Once the front moves through, expect winds to shift to
northwesterly for this evening, with drier air moving in for
tomorrow. Temperatures will be dropping into the mid 50s
overnight tonight.

Thursday will be a very pleasant day as a drier, milder air mass
moves over the area with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and
dew points dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s during the
afternoon. This will bring humidity down to 25 to 35 percent. An
absolutely delightful afternoon, with breezy winds out of the
northwest gusting to 25 to 35 mph, strongest in northeast
Nebraska. This would be a day we`d be concerned about fire
weather, but with how green we are and how wet we`ve been, we
have no fire weather concerns whatsoever.

Friday - Tuesday:

Friday will be another pleasant day, though a little bit warmer
and more humid as winds will be weaker through the afternoon. We
see a shortwave ride down the northwesterly flow from the ridge
situated to our west bringing a chance for showers and storms
Friday night into Saturday. The drier northwesterly flow should
limit the moisture available for this system, though, so don`t
expect a significant amount of rain. QPF right now is looking
like 0.5 inch or less, mainly for southeast Nebraska.

Saturday and Sunday behind this system we see a slight cool-
down again, with highs back down in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Monday, the forecast has trended drier from earlier forecasts
that had precip chances returning this day. Now ensembles have
precip chances returning on Tuesday with a slower break-down of
the Rex Block pattern to our west. This type of uncertainty is
common with blocking patterns and we may see this happen again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Winds will prevail west/northwesterly at all TAF sites for the
duration of the forecast period. Wind speeds tonight around 5
knots will increase to 10 to 15 knots by 17Z. An occasional gust
up to 35 knots will be possible north of US-30 (KOFK) between
17Z and 23Z, though the more frequent/persistent gusts will be
on the order of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will begin to die back
down after 00Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
TAF sites through 06Z tomorrow.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Darrah