Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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776 FXUS64 KOHX 191659 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Surface and upper level south central and southeastern CONUS based ridging influences are here to stay across mid state region not only through Friday, but through entire weekend. Another repeat of patchy to areas of fog development is expected as late evening through overnight hours progress tonight across our area with this fog formation lasting potentially through early morning hours on Friday. Current regional temperature trends continue to supported previously forecasted high temperature values as as upper level ridging compression clamps down on mid state region resulting in warming temperates with highs this afternoon still looking to range on the seasonally warm side upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight will continue the mild trend as of late spanning the 60s, with some upper 50s possible higher elevations of Upper Cumberland Region. Highs on Friday will even be warmer, ranging low to mid 90s, mid 80s to around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. One saving grace is that heat index values will be around forecasted high temperatures today and Friday as maximum relative humidity values generally span upper 30s through 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 As mentioned above, ridging will continue to be dominant weather player through weekend. Lows over weekend will continue mild trend spanning 60s. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will nearly be in same identical range, upper 80s to mid 90s across "The Paved Heat Island" called the Nashville Metro Area. With maximum afternoon relative humidity values continuing upper 30s through 40s range though, heat index values will once again be around forecasted high temperature values for this upcoming weekend. Still looks like a weak shortwave will approach our area as Monday progresses with maybe some light isolated showers across northern portions Monday afternoon, but bulk of any precipitation expected remaining to our north. As more of a quasi southwesterly flow tries to develop along with a more pronounced upper level shortwave passage as Tuesday progresses, looks to bring scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms to our area Tuesday afternoon. As broad upper level troughing develops across our area on Wednesday in association with a broad closed upper level low moving across Great Lakes Region, isolated to scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday with broad upper level northwesterly flow developing as Thursday progresses with a surface cold front approaching from our west eventually becoming stationary across western portions of our area on Thursday with isolated to scattered showers at least possible. Total rainfall amounts Monday through Thursday afternoon continue to trend on light side, generally less than 0.50." So, what about temperatures as next work week progresses? Although lows will continue to remain mainly in the 60s, this weather pattern evolution across our area will result in high temperatures returning back to around seasonal normal values for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 MVFR to LIFR conditions are impacting MQY/CSV/SRB this morning due to some areas of fog. Conditions will improve through the morning back to VFR. Tonight, SRB/CSV will likely see fog develop once again. Winds today will be light, generally 5 kts or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 90 66 93 69 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 84 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 90 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 85 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 84 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 89 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 90 64 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 90 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Cravens