254
FXUS64 KOHX 242312
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
612 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Sunny, cooler and less humid day across Middle Tennessee today
thanks to a cold front that moved through the region last night,
with current temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Highs will only reach the mid 80s to low 90s
today thanks to this cooler and drier airmass, with lows tonight
quite nice for late June in the upper 50s on the Plateau and 60s
elsewhere. Unfortunately, this cooldown will be shortlived as
upper ridging aloft builds back in. With the dry airmass
remaining in place, temps will heat up quickly with mid to upper
90s expected for all but the Plateau. Thankfully, the lower
dewpoints will help to make it feel not quite so hot tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tuesday night into Wednesday, an upper trough will sink southward
from the northern Plains and Great Lakes, shoving the upper ridge
well to our west. An associated cold front will also move
southward across Middle Tennessee on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. With high levels of moisture in place shown by GFS PWATs
forecast to be near or over 2 inches, anticipating scattered to
numerous showers and storms across the area on Wednesday -
especially in the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings aren`t very
impressive with modest CAPE, mid level lapse rates close to 5
C/km, and deep layer shear less than 20 knots. Nevertheless,
could still see a few strong to maybe severe pulse storms due to
the high moisture levels, with wet microbursts containing
potentially damaging winds the main threat. SPC has highlighted
much of the midstate in a marginal risk for Wednesday.

Rain chances will end on Thursday with another fairly "cool" day
expected thanks to the post-cold frontal airmass. Unfortunately,
the upper ridge to our west is forecast to build eastward and
strengthen significantly, with 500mb heights rising to near
598dm. This will bring us at least two very hot days on Friday and
Saturday with highs in the 90s to near 100 areawide. Saturday in
particular appears likely to need our first Heat Advisory for the
year as the combination of heat and dewpoints in the upper 60s and
low 70s will lead to widespread heat index values of 105 to 110.
Luckily, another upper trough will swing through from Saturday
night into Sunday and erode the upper ridge a tad. This will cool
us down slightly for Sunday plus bring us another round of
scattered showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with clear skies and
light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  98  74  94 /   0   0  10  50
Clarksville    68  96  73  91 /   0   0  30  60
Crossville     59  90  67  90 /   0   0  10  40
Columbia       67  97  71  95 /   0   0  10  50
Cookeville     62  91  70  91 /   0   0  10  40
Jamestown      60  91  69  91 /   0   0  10  50
Lawrenceburg   66  96  71  94 /   0   0  10  40
Murfreesboro   66  97  71  96 /   0   0  10  50
Waverly        69  96  72  92 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Clements