Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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957 FXUS64 KOHX 200205 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 905 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 905 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 We will see quiet conditions tonight under an upper level ridge. Winds will be light with lows in the low to mid 60s. Patchy fog can be expected again, similar to last night. The best fog chances will be outside the Nashville metro. Quiet and warm tomorrow with highs in the 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Surface and upper level south central and southeastern CONUS based ridging influences are here to stay across mid state region not only through Friday, but through entire weekend. Another repeat of patchy to areas of fog development is expected as late evening through overnight hours progress tonight across our area with this fog formation lasting potentially through early morning hours on Friday. Current regional temperature trends continue to supported previously forecasted high temperature values as as upper level ridging compression clamps down on mid state region resulting in warming temperates with highs this afternoon still looking to range on the seasonally warm side upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight will continue the mild trend as of late spanning the 60s, with some upper 50s possible higher elevations of Upper Cumberland Region. Highs on Friday will even be warmer, ranging low to mid 90s, mid 80s to around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. One saving grace is that heat index values will be around forecasted high temperatures today and Friday as maximum relative humidity values generally span upper 30s through 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 As mentioned above, ridging will continue to be dominant weather player through weekend. Lows over weekend will continue mild trend spanning 60s. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will nearly be in same identical range, upper 80s to mid 90s across "The Paved Heat Island" called the Nashville Metro Area. With maximum afternoon relative humidity values continuing upper 30s through 40s range though, heat index values will once again be around forecasted high temperature values for this upcoming weekend. Still looks like a weak shortwave will approach our area as Monday progresses with maybe some light isolated showers across northern portions Monday afternoon, but bulk of any precipitation expected remaining to our north. As more of a quasi southwesterly flow tries to develop along with a more pronounced upper level shortwave passage as Tuesday progresses, looks to bring scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms to our area Tuesday afternoon. As broad upper level troughing develops across our area on Wednesday in association with a broad closed upper level low moving across Great Lakes Region, isolated to scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday with broad upper level northwesterly flow developing as Thursday progresses with a surface cold front approaching from our west eventually becoming stationary across western portions of our area on Thursday with isolated to scattered showers at least possible. Total rainfall amounts Monday through Thursday afternoon continue to trend on light side, generally less than 0.50." So, what about temperatures as next work week progresses? Although lows will continue to remain mainly in the 60s, this weather pattern evolution across our area will result in high temperatures returning back to around seasonal normal values for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions continue with current northeasterly winds that will be going light and variable overnight. Mostly clear skies overnight means another night of patchy fog development. This is in the taf at all sites except BNA. Fog will burn off after 13Z, giving way to mostly clear skies Friday with a light and variable wind. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 66 92 69 94 / 0 0 10 0 Crossville 59 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 64 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 62 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 62 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 64 92 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 64 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 66 91 69 91 / 0 0 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Baggett