Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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436 FXUS64 KOHX 160617 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 117 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A few stubborn showers hanging on early this morning across the southwest, but these will gradually dissipate through the morning. We are finally done with impacts from Francine, and today marks the beginning of what should be a much quieter week. Ridging starts to build over the Plains today, setting up dry northerly flow over Middle TN. Plenty of sunshine will warm temperatures up into the mid and upper 80s. Temperatures tonight dip into the 50s and 60s, and with similar dewpoints, patchy fog is possible, especially for areas south of I-40 and along the Plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Monday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Overall, a nice week is ahead with mostly dry conditions and stable temperatures in the mid and upper 80s. The only noteworthy thing to talk about in the extended is potential TC Eight that NHC is highlighting off the coast of the Carolinas. The aforementioned ridging building over the Plains will block this potential tropical system from tracking into Middle TN. While its track is forecast to be well to our east over the Carolinas (possibly into northeastern TN), ensemble guidance is continuing to hint at light showers impacting the eastern Cumberland Plateau. While timing is currently uncertain, about 90% of model ensembles show light rain mid-week over the Upper Cumberland. However, this is still expected to be a non-impactful event as LREF probabilities of seeing at least a tenth of an inch of rain is less than 20 percent. Ridging is favored to break down early next week, perhaps opening the door for a disturbance to bring rain to the area by Monday. However, as expected this far out, this is highly uncertain so stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Patchy fog is possible at KSRB tonight, but confidence wasn`t high enough to include in 06Z TAF. Otherwise, just high clouds streaming across the area with east to northeast winds at 10 knots or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 89 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 88 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 83 55 77 57 / 0 10 20 10 Columbia 88 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 84 57 78 60 / 0 0 10 0 Jamestown 82 57 75 59 / 0 10 10 10 Lawrenceburg 87 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 89 60 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 87 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Clements