Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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626 FXUS64 KOHX 170518 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1218 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the center of a strong high pressure system to our east. This eastward shift has allowed surface winds to become southerly, and temperatures are already toasty late this morning with current readings in the upper-80s to low-90s. These temperatures will continue to warm this afternoon, eventually making it into the mid and upper-90s. While a couple locations will get close, chances of hitting 100 remain low (10-30 percent) although it won`t feel like it with heat index values around 100 to 104 degrees. With an increase in moisture today, chances for afternoon thunderstorms will also trend up. These pop-up thunderstorms will be disorganized with severe thunderstorms not expected. However, as is usually the case with summertime convection, any thunderstorm may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. A very similar pattern sets up on Monday as the high pressure remains centered to our east over the Carolinas. Temperatures will again warm up into the mid-90s, and hit-and-miss thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon before diminishing again after sunset. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Much of the upcoming week looks to be quiet with mainly the heat to talk about. The strong high pressure becomes centered over the mid-Atlantic states, but it will be strong enough to extinguish our own precipitation chances for several days. Tuesday through at least Thursday look rain-free with daily highs consistently staying in the 90s. For our next chance of rain, we`ll have to look ahead to next weekend as models are showing the possibility of a weak disturbance off the eastern coast of Florida that may track west-northwest into the southeastern US as the aforementioned high moves back towards the south. Confidence is low on if this develops and exact timing of any rain, but it`s enough for low rain chances (20-40 percent) Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The upper high is expected to strengthen over the mid Atlantic states through the taf period. Though there will be some afternoon convection again today, the coverage should be a little less and further west. As a result, will still include vcts for all of the taf sites again this afternoon. Latest short term mods do not support a tempo group for the CKV taf as most of the convection should remain to the west. Otherwise, look for southerly winds in the afternoon to approach 10kts. An overall increase in upper level cloudiness looks possible on into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 75 94 73 / 30 10 10 0 Clarksville 91 73 91 71 / 40 20 10 0 Crossville 88 68 86 67 / 20 10 0 0 Columbia 92 72 92 71 / 30 10 10 0 Cookeville 90 72 89 69 / 20 10 0 0 Jamestown 90 70 88 68 / 20 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 91 72 90 71 / 30 10 10 0 Murfreesboro 94 73 93 72 / 20 10 10 0 Waverly 90 72 91 72 / 40 30 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....21