465
FXUS64 KOHX 211639
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1139 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Another hot and humid summer day across the midstate today with
current temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Anticipate highs to reach the upper 80s
to around 90 on the Plateau this afternoon with mid to upper 90s
elsewhere. HRRR has been consistently showing a few popup showers
or storms during the afternoon, so I added a very slight chance
pop for that potential. Tomorrow looks even hotter as the upper
ridge remains in place and 850mb temps heat up a tad, so expect
highs to be a degree or two above today`s readings. It`s possible
Nashville could squeak up to the 100 degree mark during the
afternoon, but right now I`m forecasting it to stay just below. A
few areas could also reach our Heat Advisory criteria of 105+
heat index values, but with most areas staying below that I`m not
planning on an advisory at this time. Also not anticipating any
popups tomorrow due to the strength of the upper ridge, but as
always in our summertime regime one or two could occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

On Sunday, a weak frontal boundary will sink down from the north,
bringing some widely scattered showers and storms by late
afternoon and especially Sunday evening/night. Models accordingly
cool down highs for Sunday, but with the late day frontal arrival
they are likely overdoing things and temps will likely be similar
to Saturday. Forecast soundings aren`t impressive with only weak
shear and CAPE for late Sunday, but a strong storm or two could
occur mainly with gusty winds.

Drier airmass moves in behind the front on Monday into Tuesday,
but 850mb temps actually warm up into the 21-24C range - so it
highs will actually go up across Middle Tennessee with a better
likelihood for a few areas to hit the 100 degree mark. Low level
moisture begins returning from the west on Tuesday so precip
chances will be on the rise Wednesday into Thursday while
temperatures decline thanks to clouds/precip. Guidance shows a
more substantial cold front moving through the region by late
week, with a return to dry conditions and at least somewhat of a
"cooldown" into the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A surface ridge continues to extend through Middle Tennessee while
an upper high circulates directly overhead. TAFs are VFR. Expect
light/calm winds thru the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      97  74  99  74 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    95  72  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     88  67  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
Columbia       94  72  96  71 /   0  10   0   0
Cookeville     90  69  91  71 /   0   0  10   0
Jamestown      89  68  90  70 /   0   0  10   0
Lawrenceburg   93  71  95  71 /   0   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   95  72  97  72 /   0   0  10   0
Waverly        93  72  95  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Rose