Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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770 FXUS64 KOHX 241030 AAA AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 530 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 With several locations across mid state region reporting visibilities reduced to around 1/4 of a mile or less, issued a dense fog advisory for patchy dense fog for entire mid state region through 8 AM CDT this morning. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 With some locations receiving rainfall yesterday and now clearing skies as these early morning hours have progressed, patchy fog formation development noted at a few reporting locations presently and would not be surprised to see some patchy dense fog develop as remainder of early morning hours unfold. Dry conditions will prevail across mid state region through Tuesday afternoon. Surface cold front will continue moving southward into deep south as today progresses, with surface high pressure influences building in from north with upper level flow becoming increasingly northwesterly orientated. Highs today will range from low to mid 90s for locations generally around and west of I-65 Corridor Region to mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region to upper 80s/lower 90s east of I-65 Corridor Region. With surface high pressure influences northerly based, expect rather low afternoon relative humidity values, dewpoints spanning the 60s, and thus heat index values will be close to actual temperature values. Upper level ridging influences will strengthen and become main weather player tonight through Tuesday. Lows tonight will generally range mid to upper 60s, upper 50s to lower 60s Cumberland Plateau Region. With surface high pressure influences shifting more easterly, allowing more of a southerly low level flow pattern to become established, highs on Tuesday will be approaching up to 10 degrees above normal in some locations, ranging mid to upper 90s, upper 80s to lower 90s for locations across and just west of Cumberland Plateau Region. Locations around and west of I-65 Corridor Region could experience afternoon heat index values 100 to around 105 degrees, especially for locations approaching the TN River Valley Region. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances return to mid state region after midnight Tuesday night lasting across eastern portions of our area through Thursday afternoon, with best chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon of which some thunderstorms could at least reach strong thresholds. Change in weather pattern due to upper level troughing influences as Tuesday night into Wednesday progresses. Muggy overnight conditions will be experienced Tuesday with highs on Wednesday generally in low to mid 90s. Slightly cooler lows ranging in mid to upper 60s will be experienced on Wednesday night with passage of another quick moving surface cold front, with coolest day of forecast period being experienced on Thursday per influences of Great Lakes Based surface high pressure and quasi upper level ridging influences building in, resulting in highs ranging upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Another dry period will persist Thursday Night through Friday Night across our area with warming conditions once again commencing. Mid state region will be under what is called a "Dirty Upper Level Ridging Pattern" as weekend into next Monday progresses with enough moisture working under upper level ridging pattern to support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with seasonally warm conditions continuing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Surface boundary has more or less cleared Middle Tennessee, with no active weather remaining that could impact any of the terminals. We do have excellent radiation cooling conditions setting up, with a wet ground to add to the mix, so we will be monitoring for fog and low stratus during the overnight hours. Once the fog dissipates early Monday, expect VFR wx and light/calm winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 93 70 98 75 / 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 92 69 96 73 / 0 0 10 20 Crossville 84 59 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 94 67 98 72 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 85 64 91 70 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 84 61 90 68 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 92 66 96 71 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 92 66 97 71 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 92 69 97 73 / 0 0 10 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Bedford- Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson- Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence- Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett- Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Rose