086
FXUS64 KOHX 151715
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Upper level ridging has taken hold across the southeast United
States today and the result will be the warmest temperatures we`ve
seen so far this calendar year. Afternoon highs will reach into the
mid and upper 90s today and tomorrow, however there is a slight
difference between the two days. While the upper ridge will pretty
much be overhead today, it will slip eastward overnight and this may
very well open the door for some of us to see our first chance for
rain in quite awhile tomorrow. It likely won`t be everyone as we`ll
only be dealing with isolated to scattered afternoon/early evening
storms, but those who do see storms will be dealing with brief heavy
rainfall, lotsa lightning and potentially gusty winds -- as we
usually do with summertime thunderstorms. If you have outdoor plans
for Father`s Day, plan ahead for the potential of an afternoon
soaker. Similar conditions can be expected Monday afternoon and
early evening, so if you miss out on Sunday rain, maybe you`ll catch
one on Monday, but with only 20-40% chances across Middle TN each
day, there is the potential for continued manual watering of your
garden.

The other thing to plan ahead for if you`ll be outdoors tomorrow is
the heat. With the ridge moving east of us tonight, this will also
put Middle TN in a weak southerly flow. Dew points will increase
tomorrow, so not only will we have the thunderstorms chances,
Heat Index values will also creep into the triple digits for areas
west of the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Models are fairly consistent across the board that rain chances will
be extinguished on Tuesday and with general ridging across the
region, afternoon highs are expected to remain in the low to mid 90s
each day through the rest of the week. If it`s summer you like,
summer you shall have and while May was pretty wet, June is shaping
up to be relatively dry. There isn`t even anything in the Gulf of
Mexico worth talking about just yet as far as any better rain
chances here in the mid-state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with light winds and
mostly clear skies. Winds become southerly by early Sunday
morning. Pop-up thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon,
perhaps starting to develop before 18Z. However, confidence is not
high enough to include mention of hit-and-miss thunderstorms at
TAF sites at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  97  74  95 /   0  20  20  20
Clarksville    70  95  73  92 /   0  20  20  30
Crossville     67  89  69  87 /   0  40  20  30
Columbia       73  97  73  94 /   0  20  20  30
Cookeville     69  92  72  90 /   0  30  20  20
Jamestown      66  91  70  89 /   0  30  20  30
Lawrenceburg   73  95  72  92 /   0  20  20  20
Murfreesboro   73  97  73  95 /   0  20  20  20
Waverly        72  96  73  92 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Clements