Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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410 FXUS64 KOHX 181642 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Despite a continuance of low cloud coverage across a good portion of mid state region, latest suite of forecast model runs showing depth of current moisture eroding slowly as afternoon through nighttime hours progress. Will continue with current high temperature forecast for today as current regional temperature trends continue to support forecasted afternoon high temperature values. Tonight lows will be on seasonably warm side ranging generally low to mid 60s, around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region. With light and variable winds becoming predominate after midnight tonight, patchy to areas of fog formation being possible lasting thru the early morning hours across our area. Look for strong upper level ridging influences to build in from our west especially as Thursday progresses. High temperatures will be more like typical summertime normals, ranging upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region under generally mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper level ridging influences will be dominant weather player through upcoming weekend with atmospheric low level ridging influences also continuing. Thus dry conditions will also continue to prevail. This enhancing warm air advection scenario means that high temperatures could reach into low to mid 90s, upper 80s to around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region with seasonably mild lows spanning the 60s this weekend. Good thing is that afternoon humidity values will only span the 40s so maximum afternoon heat index values will be at or even slightly lower than forecasted max temperatures. Look for upper level troughing influences to become more enhanced bisecting northeast to southwest across central CONUS as next Monday progresses, then slowly push eastward as mid portion of next work week approaches into our area. A slow moving surface cold front may even approach from our northwest by Wednesday. This will bring chances of rainfall back to mid state region. Currently, only isolated to scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder look to be possible with only light rainfall amounts expected. This change in the weather pattern will result in a slow cold air advection scenario commencing across our area as first half of next work week progresses. Highs by next Wednesday afternoon will be closer to seasonal normal values as lows continue to remain mild mainly in mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 LIFR to IFR CIGs are impacting the Upper Cumberland this morning including SRB/CSV while MVFR conditions are being observed around BNA/MQY. CIGs are expected to lift back to VFR conditions through the late morning as daytime mixing increases. Winds will be out of the N/NE through the TAF period with relatively light winds 5kt or less. Tonight, another period of low CIGs looks to impacts areas east of I65. Mainly MVFR with some pockets of IFR CIGs possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 68 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 87 66 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 80 59 83 58 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 86 64 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 81 62 84 60 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 80 61 83 59 / 10 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 85 64 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 86 65 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 86 65 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Cravens