Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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015 FXUS64 KOHX 222324 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 624 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday Night) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Hot and humid is the main weather story today and tomorrow thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure overhead. Current temperatures late this morning are already in the mid 80s on the Plateau and upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere, and highs should easily reach around 90 on the Plateau and mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area this afternoon. Guidance such as the HRRR continues to show some isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm popping up this afternoon, and indeed already seeing some tiny showers on radar as well as some towering cumulus on visible satellite. Therefore will keep a slight chance pop going, mainly across our northeast half. On Sunday into Sunday night, a weak cold front will move across the area bringing a better albeit still low chance for showers and storms across the midstate. Despite the increased rain chances, temps will still be quite hot and near or only slightly below today`s readings. SPC continues to highlight our cwa in a marginal risk for severe storms on Sunday into Sunday night. Forecast soundings do show MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 range on Sunday afternoon, but lapse rates are very poor in the 5-6C/km range and shear is quite weak. Therefore not anticipating much in the way of strong to severe activity, with a couple storms potentially producing some strong microburst winds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Airmass behind the front will dry us out for Monday and Tuesday, which will actually allow temperatures to heat up more easily thanks to the upper ridge remaining nearby. Highs should reach the 90s both days areawide, and a few locations could hit the 100 degree mark such as BNA. Thankfully, lower dewpoints should keep our heat index values just below the 105 degree mark for a Heat Advisory both days, but it will be close. Temperatures "cool" down for Wednesday and Thursday as an upper trough digs southward from the Great Lakes pushing another front down from the north. This system looks to bring our highest chance for rain in the next 7 days on Wednesday, with high chance to likely pops across the midstate. Forecast soundings show slightly lower CAPE but a bit higher lapse rates and shear on Wednesday, so a few strong or maybe severe storms could occur and another SPC marginal risk is possible. After the brief respite from the heat, a new and stronger upper ridge is forecast to develop across the southern Plains eastward into the Tennessee Valley by next weekend. Therefore we will heat right back up into the upper 90s to near 100 by end of the forecast period, with only slight chances for some summertime pulse showers/storms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected into tomorrow. We could maybe see a little bit of patchy fog in fog prone areas between 07-11z and that may bring a short period of MVFR conditions but confidence is low. SCT to BKN clouds 040-060 tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting in the northwest after 19z continuing to spread east into the afternoon. Light winds tonight increasing out of the southwest after 15z becoming 10-15 knots gusting to 20 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 75 97 75 98 / 0 30 30 10 Clarksville 74 93 71 95 / 10 30 20 0 Crossville 67 88 67 89 / 0 30 40 10 Columbia 71 96 73 97 / 0 30 30 10 Cookeville 70 90 70 89 / 0 30 40 10 Jamestown 69 89 68 88 / 10 40 40 10 Lawrenceburg 70 95 72 96 / 0 30 30 10 Murfreesboro 71 96 72 97 / 0 30 30 10 Waverly 72 93 72 96 / 0 30 30 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Mueller