290
FXUS64 KOHX 141059
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
559 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

In the days ahead we will definitely be trending toward a hotter
summertime pattern. Yesterday, the heat index did reach 93F in
Nashville, and as hot as it felt, that`s still a good 12F below the
advisory threshold. Furthermore, the actual high was 94F, so the HI
effect was neutral to slightly negative. Well, it`s going to heat up
more so the heat index values will still need to be under review for
sure.

Early this morning, it`s mild and tranquil with temperatures in the
mid to upper 60s. Dewpoint spreads are rather low so we could still
see some patchy fog toward sunrise. Could see some patchy fog again
tonight as depressions will remain low.

For today, a weakening front to our north is expected to fizzle
before reaching our area. It will encounter drier air and the
beginning influences of some upper ridge expansion from TX through
the mid MS valley. All mods are showing this precip dying out
quickly. Thus the trend through Sunday will be for the mid and upper
levels to warm as a strong upper high moves across the deep/mid
south on Saturday. This is going to equate to a warming trend with
highs working upward through the 90s. By Sunday, some thermal
thickness separation will be in play across our area. As this
combines with 850 mb temps in the 21C- 22.5C range, we will see the
mercury shoot up into the upper 90s for highs west of the Plat. The
good news is that it appears that dewpoints will hold in the 60s as
much of the lower level flow remains somewhat land locked. Still,
rather hot conditions upcoming.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

In the extended forecast, the summertime pattern will be well
entrenched so we can forget about any frontal passages. That said,
the mid and upper levels will serve as governor, if you will, for
the upcoming wx conditions. Additionally, cape to cap ratios will
be monitored as the upper high does move east early next week
with a uniform southerly flow setting up. At that time, we will
see a little bit more in the way of afternoon convective
potential. Nothing significant, by any means, but perhaps a 20-30
afternoon pop for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Remember that
just a small amount of mid level cooling can tilt the convective
balance just enough to pop a few showers and storms in the
afternoon. Not seeing any strong to severe storms though. Those
850mb speeds are 10mph or less, forcing is on the weak side with
no organization to speak of, and the synoptic scenario is
completely out to lunch. No, just general isolated to perhaps scattered
afternoon storm potential.

By mid week, the mods elude more toward what looks like a July or
August pattern. What I mean by that is that the upper high shifts
northward across the northeastern states. Some southwest ridge
extension is noted with a fair degree of confidence. This will act
to efficaciously warm those mid levels and put the hiatus on our
convective chances. Looking way out at day 7 and 8, slight
convective chances could return with a potential easterly wave or
a vague moisture undercut in regard to the ridge. NBM may just
hold those pops at 10% with no visual acuity noted in the wx
grids/zones.

For those extended temps, though the upper high shifts east early in
the period, not much in the way of a cool down can be expected.
Look for highs to remain in the 90s. 925MB-850mb trajectories
continue to basically refrain from a gulf tap/humidity assault, so
again those dewpoints will hold in the 60s. Overnight lows look
like upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

There is some patchy fog this morning mainly in the vicinity of
KSRB, this will lift in the next hour or so. Then VFR condition
are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be light under 5
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  71  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    91  68  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     87  64  85  63 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       94  69  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     88  66  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      87  64  85  62 /  10  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   93  69  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   95  69  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        91  69  91  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Mueller