436
FXUS64 KOHX 160617
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
117 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A few stubborn showers hanging on early this morning across the
southwest, but these will gradually dissipate through the morning.
We are finally done with impacts from Francine, and today marks
the beginning of what should be a much quieter week. Ridging
starts to build over the Plains today, setting up dry northerly
flow over Middle TN. Plenty of sunshine will warm temperatures up
into the mid and upper 80s. Temperatures tonight dip into the 50s
and 60s, and with similar dewpoints, patchy fog is possible,
especially for areas south of I-40 and along the Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Monday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Overall, a nice week is ahead with mostly dry conditions and
stable temperatures in the mid and upper 80s. The only noteworthy
thing to talk about in the extended is potential TC Eight that NHC
is highlighting off the coast of the Carolinas. The aforementioned
ridging building over the Plains will block this potential
tropical system from tracking into Middle TN. While its track is
forecast to be well to our east over the Carolinas (possibly into
northeastern TN), ensemble guidance is continuing to hint at light
showers impacting the eastern Cumberland Plateau. While timing is
currently uncertain, about 90% of model ensembles show light rain
mid-week over the Upper Cumberland. However, this is still
expected to be a non-impactful event as LREF probabilities of
seeing at least a tenth of an inch of rain is less than 20
percent.

Ridging is favored to break down early next week, perhaps opening
the door for a disturbance to bring rain to the area by Monday.
However, as expected this far out, this is highly uncertain so
stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Patchy fog is
possible at KSRB tonight, but confidence wasn`t high enough to
include in 06Z TAF. Otherwise, just high clouds streaming across
the area with east to northeast winds at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    88  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     83  55  77  57 /   0  10  20  10
Columbia       88  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     84  57  78  60 /   0   0  10   0
Jamestown      82  57  75  59 /   0  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   87  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   89  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        87  59  85  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Clements